Saturday, December 31, 2011

Final 2011 Stats

These are not my actual trading returns. Mine are listed in a chart below. The following stats are compiled using raw signals from my system, using TNA as a trading vehicle. Results below do not account for slippage, taxes, or commissions.

Annual Compound Return: 51.43%

Total Trades: 46
Winners: 35 of 46 (76%)
Avg Return per Trade: +1.12%
Profit Factor: 1.63

Breakdown

Long Trades: 27
Winners: 20 of 27 (74%)
Compound Return (Longs only): + 27.76%
Avg. Return: +1.03%
Avg. Return (winners only): + 5.01%
Avg. Return (losers only): -8.28%
Worst Loss: -44.36% (ouch)
Best Gain: +11.90%
Profit Factor: 1.32

Short Trades: 19
Winners: 15 of 19 (79%)
Compound Return (Shorts only): + 35.41%
Avg. Return: +1.86%
Avg. Return (winners only): + 3.55%
Avg. Return (losers only): -4.45%
Worst Loss: -8.36%
Best Gain: +8.69%
Profit Factor: 2.90

All returns above incorporate whether the system was 50% or 100% invested. For example, if the system went 50% long at TNA 40 and sold at TNA 44, it does not get credit for the full 10% gain.

At first glance, it appears my system did better shorting the market and I suppose that is true. But if you play the "what if" game and pretend that 1 bad trade in August didn't happen, my system would've returned well over 110% for the year, the majority of which came from the long trades. Remove that 1 trade and the profit factor for all long trades would've jumped up to 6.60!!! (Which is an insane number). I introduced stop losses in August, so eventually this weekend I will calculate some stats assuming I had stop loss rules in place all year (done - below).

Here's a fun chart tracking my actual trading account throughout 2011. You can see I couldn't keep up with the 51% performance of my system. But after August, I was happy just to finish in the black. I remember praying several times back in Aug. Looks like it worked! :)











Hypothetical August Stop Loss case. CAUTION...almost unbelievable results ahead. :)
If we had the stop loss rules in place in the summer, half of the long trade initiated in July would've been stopped out on July 29th when my model flipped to unhealthy status. TNA closed at 72.71 that particular day. The other half of the trade would've been sold at 44.15 on Aug 11. Stopping half the position at ~72 results in moderate damage versus severe damage like we experienced. The trades that followed in mid-late August were nothing short of amazing (as can be seen in my chart above) and the total loss in August would've been a paltry -6.61% versus the actual -29.44%. Obviously this makes a world of difference. The account at the end of August would still have been up over 41% for the year versus the actual 6%. The difference by the end of the year would've put the system up 100.4% through December versus the actual 51.43%! Like I said, almost unbelievable. So far, my system has flipped to unhealthy status before every recent crash. The process by which a market tops before crashing leads me to believe this stop loss feature will protect assets in a similar fashion in the future. The outlook appears bright.

All-in on the first signal scenario...WARNING...UNBELIEVABLE RESULTS AHEAD :)
Taking a 50% position on the first signal, followed by going all-in on a second signal was a terrible strategy in 2011. While playing with smaller amounts of capital might have lowered my stress levels, it substantially lowered profits... SUBSTANTIALLY!!!
Here is a profit curve with a $10,000 initial investment.










Your eyes are not deceiving you...that is a 268% gain for the year!!!

Late November had back to back losing trades that were pretty big, but by far the biggest blow to the system came in August when it gave back almost 50% on that 1 trade. Can you imagine if I plotted this curve using the stop loss rules? Let's do it!









The loss in Aug is marginalized and the system returns 387%!

I'm going to give my 50% / 100% strategy a few more months to prove its worth before I completely scrap it. But with a profit curve like that, I can't see sticking with it much longer. Especially now that stop losses are built in.

Market Health Section
I've described how I determine market health several times. I only use market health as a qualifier for my signals, but that doesn't mean it can not be used for long term buy and sell signals. Here is a chart showing when my model flipped from healthy to unhealthy and vice versa. Assuming a long only SPX strategy with no leverage, it would be about a 5% gain for 2011.


Last but certainly not least - Strong buy and sell signals.
(Defined as when both healthy and unhealthy modes are generating the same signal.)

There were 29 signals that were strong (either buy or short). There were 23 winners, 6 losers for an 79% win ratio. Of the 6 losers, 5 were very mild. The 1 major loss came in the summer. Check out this profit curve assuming you only traded strong buy/short signals using a 100% positioning strategy (TNA).













That's a 200% return despite losing almost half the equity from 1 trade in July. Looking closer at that bad trade, the strong buy signal bought TNA at ~80 on July 14th. A week later TNA was up around 85. So the buy signal was decent, the problem was my system failed to generate a sell when it should have. Neither buys nor shorts had an edge. All strong signals (long or short) should be followed. One possible strategy since strong signals are rock solid is to use 100% positioning for strong signals and 50% for regular signals. Food for thought...

Thanks for reading!!! Let's see if the system can keep producing these kinds of results in 2012. Insert standard disclaimer here about how past results can not predict future performance, and trade at your own risk, etc, etc.... Happy New Year and God Bless!!

To view all the raw signals, click below. On the ensuing page, scroll halfway down and click the gray "Download This File" button.
2011 Signals Excel Spreadsheet
Sorry these links are broken!!! Email me for files!

As a fun extra bonus, here are the old 2010 signals. Keep in mind, the system was still in its infancy in 2010.
2010 Signals Excel Spreadsheet
Sorry these links are broken!!! - jtrader21 at gmail dot com

Friday, December 30, 2011

Buy confirmed.

5pm: The buy signal indeed held into the close which puts the system 50% long going into the new year. It wasn't a strong signal by any stretch, but it did strengthen in the last few minutes.

At any rate, I'm content sitting on the sidelines despite the fact my system recommended I buy some TNA. If we see any weakness early next week, I'll be a buyer. With another strong month under its belt, the system finished the year up over 50%! More on that in a future post...Take care.

3:46pm: Looks like a buy signal, although it's very close right now and it's a very weak signal. I'm going to exit my short position on the close and remain in cash over the extended weekend. If the buy persists into the close, I'll consider going long on Tuesday. Happy new year all!!!

PS - Extensive year end stats are coming this weekend.


Archiving Dec Trades below...


Date
Signal
TNA
Nov 30
Short44.84
Dec 1
Hold
Dec 2
Hold
Dec 5
Hold - 1/2 Stop
46.69
Dec 6
Hold
Dec 7
Hold
Dec 8
Buy42.29
Dec 9
Short46.08
Dec 12
Hold
Dec 13
Buy41.20
Dec 14
Hold
Dec 15
Hold
Dec 16
Hold
Dec 19
Hold
Dec 20
Hold
Dec 21
Hold
Dec 22
Sell45.83
Dec 23
Hold
Dec 26
Closed

Dec 27
Short46.70
Dec 28
Cover44.20
Dec 29
Short45.56
Dec 30
Buy44.84

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Short confirmed.

408pm: I wasn't expecting to be short so soon again, but here I am back in BGZ (got a great fill price 2 cents from LOD). Even though TZA performed better on the last short trade, I am still hesitant to short small caps right now. Should we continue higher, TZA would burn me worse - and I'm in pretty conservative mode right now as I want to close out the year on a high note - and at or near new equity highs.

Take care and I'll see ya tomorrow!

3:28pm: Here we go again. System goes 50% short (tna) if spy closes 125.66 or higher.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Cover shorts.

Cover signal is confirmed. My system is not seeing an edge in either direction now, so it moves to the sidelines.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Short if TNA closes above 46.30

3:52pm: Ok, I should've been more specific in my first post. TNA just has to finish positive...aka above 46.30... to get the short signal. That is the only requirement today.

3:15pm: If TNA holds these gains through the last 45 minutes we'll easily get a short signal. The system will move to 50% short TNA. I am considering shorting a different leveraged ETF since small caps tend to outperform. I'll be looking to perhaps purchase some BGZ or FAZ.

I had some twitter issues last Friday which caused my tweet to be delayed. I think I have it fixed and hopefully it won't happen again.

I will update in a bit to confirm. Take care!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Merry Christmas all!

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Sell confirmed. No short.

3:45pm: We lost the short signal, but a sell signal remains. So my system heads to the sidelines. I notice VXX is up and VIX is down. This usually means a pullback is imminent. On the other hand, seasonality as we all know remains strong. It will probably lead to a bunch of boring range days to close out the year.

11am: It's only 11am ET, but we are getting a strong short signal. If it holds the system will book profits in TNA and open a partial short position. I may consider using a different ETF for shorting, given the tendency for small caps to outperform this time of year. BGZ is an old favorite of mine. I will update later... happy trading.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Hold confirmed.

The system remains 50% long. Good evening!

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Hold confirmed.

The upthrust component of my system won out today and is holding the long position. I'm expecting higher prices in the short term. Tomorrow should be a range day, though maybe slightly red.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Friday, December 16, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Holding my longs. Have a great weekend!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Hold (longs) confirmed.

My system sells the long position and goes 50% short if SPY closes anywhere from 122.50 to 122.65. Anything outside of this range (whether above or below) will be a hold signal - maintaining the long position.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. System remains 50% long.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Strong buy signal.

4:10pm: The strong buy signal was confirmed. I mean it this time. :) Sold my shorts I bought this morning for a huge profit. Two stellar days in a row. Good night!


Currently, 3:47pm, I'm getting a strong buy signal. Here is the rundown.

SPY closes at 122.62 or higher: Strong buy signal. System covers shorts and moves 50% long.

SPY closes at 122.61 or lower: Cover signal. Systems exits shorts and moves to sideline.

I'm hoping for a cover signal. The fact the VIX is not spiking bothers me. It wreaks of complacency.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Correction: Hold Shorts!

5:30pm: We were in solid buy territory as I began typing the message below. The thought did not even cross my mind that we could lose the buy signal, but that's exactly what happened. So unfortunately I screwed up. My system said to hold the short position. I will be going short again tomorrow to get in line with my system, though I will have to use extra caution to avoid for the 4 round trips rule. Sorry for the mix up. As a bit of confirmation, the VXX closed up while VIX was down. Statistically this is bearish for the short term. This is not part of my system, but it's something I keep an eye on... Again, sorry for the confusion.

3:37pm: The system is exiting shorts and switching to a 50% long position on the close. The late day strength has weakened the buy signal considerably. It was a strong buy signal when we were at the lows today. While the system goes to 50% long TNA, I'm going to take a smaller position and wait for a possible retest of today's lows before buying more.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Short confirmed.

3pm Sat: The short signal was confirmed yesterday. The long position was closed for a nice profit and a 50% short position was initiated. It was a strong short signal which simply means my healthy and unhealthy modes were both generating short signals. By design, it's difficult to get a healthy short signal because I developed the healthy mode for the sole purpose of riding uptrends. So confidence is fairly high that we'll see some type of pullback early next week. Stats have also been updated. So far Dec is down a couple percent, but hopefully this short signal can bring it back into the black. Hope you all are enjoying the weekend!


2pm Fri: Right now I am getting a strong short signal.... Here is the system rundown.

If SPY closes at or above 125.60 = Sell longs and go 50% short. (Strong short signal)

If SPY closes 125.17 to 125.59 = Sell longs and go to 100% cash.

If SPY closes 125.16 or lower = Hold longs.

Have a good weekend all!

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Buy confirmed.

5:15pm: A buy signal was confirmed. Because the late downward surge took the SPX below the critical 1234 level, we did not get a strong buy signal. Thus, my current long position is pretty small at this point.


3pm: A buy signal will be confirmed if SPY closes below 126.59. This is almost a given based on today's action. Further, it is a strong buy signal if the follow 2 conditions are met.

1) SPY closes below 125.81
2) SPX does not drop below 1234

Obviously I would be more confident with the long position if we can get the strong buy, but #2 looks like it could be in jeopardy going into the last hour.

Either way, I will be closing my short position on the close and taking a relatively small long position. Too much uncertainty with the "EZ" to place a 50% bet in my opinion, although the system doesn't work that way.

See ya tomorrow!

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. Remaining 50% short. Some of my indicators are warning that something big could be coming within a week or so. By big, I mean down big. I'm not willing to wager too much on it right now though.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Hold confirmed.

A hold signal keeps the system at 50% short TNA and 50% cash. See ya tomorrow!

Monday, December 5, 2011

Half stop. Hold remainder.

Even though it appears we may pullback in the short term given today's reversal type candle (which makes 3 in a row?), the system is flipping to healthy mode today and exits half the short position. I did so prematurely on Friday when I thought SPY was going to finish green, so I will remain where I'm at - about 50% short TNA and 50% cash. The system moves back to 50% cash as well. Good evening!

Update - Tech. difficulties today... Twitter and Blogger down for both my phone and laptop.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Hold signal. Covering half my short position.

3:40pm: The system looks to flip to healthy mode today. I'm getting another hold signal, but since SPY is hanging tough in positive territory I'll be closing half my short position. If by some miracle we get a late day selloff, I'll keep my full short position through the weekend. I'm not expecting that to be the case. On the bright side, today could've been worse.

10:30am ET: Sadly, it just doesn't look like this short trade is going to work out for me. Like yesterday, I'll be looking for a green SPY close to dump half my shorts. I'd say based on the first hour of trading, I'm going to be taking a sizable loss today. Ugh.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Hold confirmed. Possible 1/2 stop.

There are only two possibilities today and it hinges on SPY. If SPY closes up for the day, cover half the short position. If it finishes unchanged or down, hold 100% short.

Stop loss in play...

Stop Loss
Reminder if SPY closes green today, the system flips to healthy mode and cuts loose half of the short position. Judging by the market reaction to the 10AM news, this is looking more and more likely. (Or not!!?! 11:25am)

November wrap up
The system is 100% short averaged in at TNA 41.61. TNA needs to drop below this level in order to avoid 2 losing trades in a row. The failed buy signal back on Nov 16th ended up costing the system a good chunk of change, but it still managed to finish the month off on a positive note (+ 7.35%) thanks to the strong performance the first half of Nov. Not counting this (losing) short trade we are in, the system is up 35% for the year.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Short confirmed. (+ Nov Trades)

My system moves to a 100% short position. You need some serious guts to go 100% 3x leveraged short in this free money environment so caution is warranted. There is a partial safety net, however. Tomorrow, if SPY closes green, it will flip the system back to healthy mode and thus stop out half the short position.

My system was built to catch these whipsaws, but these past few trades have definitely gone awry. I can't remember having 3 losing trades in a row, so the system is due to have a winner after these last 2 losers. I suppose this short signal is not over yet, though.

I'm going heavily short on the close. Best of luck to all. Take it easy!
Archiving November Trades...


Date
Signal
TNA
Nov 1
Cover42.77
Nov 2
Hold
Nov 3
Hold
Nov 4
Hold
Nov 7
Hold
Nov 8
Short50.02
Nov 9
Buy42.91
Nov 10
Hold
Nov 11
Sell47.16
Nov 14
Buy45.16
Nov 15
Sell46.90
Nov 16
Buy44.61
Nov 17
Hold
Nov 18
Hold
Nov 21
Hold - 1/2 Stopped
39.58
Nov 22
Hold
Nov 23
Hold
Nov 24
Closed

Nov 25
Hold
Nov 28
Short38.39
Nov 29
Hold
Nov 30
Short44.84




Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. System remains half short, half cash. Good evening!

Monday, November 28, 2011

Sell/short confirmed.

Assuming today's SPY range does not break to the upside, I can predict the signal.

If SPY closes above 119.60: Sell longs and go 50% short.

If SPY closes between 119.21 - 119.60: Sell longs.

If SPY closes below 119.21: Hold longs.

Again, these numbers are only valid if SPY does not exceed 120.18. If it does, I'll have to update. Thanks!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Hold

First off, apologies for the late update. With the beautiful weather, the kids and I were out hanging Christmas lights. I totally forgot the market was closing early today. Oops.

Anyway, I just fired up the laptop and see we had yet another hold signal. Very close to a buy signal, but not quite. I don't know if this means more downside Monday or not, but I would say probably.

If you read my comments section, you'll notice I bought some longs on the open. As I turned off the computer, we were up nicely so I was feeling pretty good at the time. Not so much anymore.

We will bounce eventually, that is a near certainty. And when it comes it could be HUGE. The problem of course is that we could continue to sink for who knows how long... I'm up to about 50% long TNA now with today's purchase. If we gap down huge on Monday, I will add more longs. Otherwise, I'm content with the position and will let it ride for a few days.

Have a refreshing weekend!

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Hold confirmed.

We were very close to a buy signal, but not going to make it. That said, we were close enough that I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a sizable bounce the next few days.

Anyway, time to forget about the market for a while and enjoy family, friends, and all that we have. I'll see ya back here Friday. Happy Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Hold confirmed.

The system remains 25% long. The VIX being down along with the market is somewhat concerning, although some will say it's bullish. I see it as complacency.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Unhealthy Mode & 1/2 Stop

3:52pm: On the close, we'll sell half the long position, keep the other half. This places the system in approx. 75% cash.

11:42am: The system is now in unhealthy mode starting today. Additionally, since we took out SPY 119.12, the system will move to 25% TNA and 75% cash on the close. Keep in mind, the last time the system was stopped out of a long position it was a great time to buy. This is precisely why we'll keep a partial long position going until the next signal. Then again, this could be early August all over again...

Lower prices are expected and my system will sell/short any strength over the coming days. I see today as a significant shakeout before higher prices later this week surrounding the holiday. Thus, I'm expecting to hold onto this long position then go short heading into next week.

We'll see how it goes... Thanks for reading!

8:06am: Judging by the futures this morning (/es -20), I have to mention the possibility that the stop loss could get taken out. The level to watch is SPY 119.12. If we dip below that value at anytime today or this week, the system will flip to unhealthy mode. This forces the system to exit half of the long position (ie. move to 25% TNA, 75% cash) on the closing price on day in which the stop loss level is violated. Today, perhaps?

Friday, November 18, 2011

Hold confirmed.

We are close to a 2nd buy signal (strong) - but not quite. So the system will hold 50% TNA over the weekend. Have a good one!

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Buy confirmed.

4:05pm: Buy was confirmed. Not a strong buy signal, but it should be good enough for a bounce over the next few days. A gap up tomorrow almost guarantees this trade will be profitable. A gap down? Well, not so good. But that's why it's best to keep some powder dry. Time will tell. Good evening!

3:41pm: Open 50% long position in TNA if SPY closes below 124.15. Currently 124.35, so we need a weak finish. Otherwise, hold tight on the sidelines as there will probably be more down side tomorrow, at least according to my system.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Sell confirmed. Short if...

The system will exit the long position today. There is a chance of a short signal if SPY closes above 126.85. If SPY finishes equal to or lower than that, there will be no short signal.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Strong buy confirmed.

3:55pm: Buy signal (strong) is confirmed.

2:22pm: I'm getting a buy signal today. It's borderline right now, but we may even get a strong buy signal, which simply means the unhealthy mode is giving a buy signal in addition to the healthy mode (which we are in). A strong signal carries with it better results/returns than a normal signal, thus I will sometimes throw additional capital into the ring. Not always though. The official system does not, and if anyone is following my system verbatim, I would recommend not to deviate either. Just for reference, the system always allocates 50% of its capital on the first signal (no matter the strength) and saves the rest for possible dollar cost averaging - because believe it or not my system is not perfect and it can not nail the exact turning point every time. :)

Friday, November 11, 2011

Sell signal. Short if...

The system will close the long position today with a confirmed sell signal. The only question is whether we get a short signal, which would require a ~1 point spike in the VIX here in the last 30 minutes. (Unlikely.) The VIX value to watch is 31.10. We are at 30.13 right now, so like I said, unlikely. Anyway, head to sidelines and enjoy the weekend! Indulge in the finer things in life and forget about the market! See ya Monday.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Hold confirmed.

The system will hold its 50% long position for at least another day. The market obeyed my wishes this morning and filled the opening gap allowing my order to be filled. So with nothing else to report, I'll sign off and see ya back here tomorrow.

Limit buy TNA 42.91

In the event that today's large gap up doesn't fill, I will not chase. I have my limit order in place. Should the order fill, the manual stop loss will be activated if SPY breaks below the 10/13 low of 119.12. According the relatively new stop loss rules, half of the long position would be exited on the close that day and the other half will ride until the next signal.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Buy confirmed.

4:30pm: I am seeing SPY 123.16 for the closing price, which confirms the buy signal. It was too close to call, so I'll get long in the morning. Shorts were closed, that was the easy part. Have a good one!

3:20pm: Wow, that was some drop. Now we're bouncing and heading the wrong direction. Anyway, nothing has changed with my system. We will get a cover signal to exit the short position. That is confirmed. As for the buy signal to move into 50% TNA, we need SPY to close below 123.18. Otherwise, we're back to sitting on the sidelines. Thanks!

2pm update: We are getting there for that buy signal! We need an SPY close below 123.18. Can we make it?!!?


1pm: The writing is on the wall. I can already tell my system won't have the guts to hold this short position through tomorrow (even though personally I want it to). On the other hand, it's refusing to go long also. So we have a similar set-up to November 1st. There is a decent chance of a rebound in the coming days but not good enough to get a buy signal today. We would have to absolutely tank this afternoon to get the buy.

I will update later, regardless. Happy trading! Oh, and yes, in case you were wondering I'm quite smitten today with my system nailing this move. When I woke up and saw the ES down 30, I think my small burst of excitement scared the crap out of my sleeping wife. :)

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Short if...

If SPY closes at 127.09 or higher, system goes SHORT TNA 50%, while leaving 50% cash just in case we go up a bit more.

If, however, we close at 127.08 or lower, system stays in 100% cash.

No need for further updates today. Thanks for checking in! Have a good evening!!

Monday, November 7, 2011

Hold confirmed.

There is no apparent edge in either direction so the system remains on the sidelines yet again. Hasta MaƱana.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Hold confirmed.

No changes today. My system remains on the sideline. Enjoy your weekend.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

4pm: Hold confirmed.

Looks like we should go higher or flat-ish tomorrow. No downside edge is showing up.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Hold.

With VIX closing sub 33, a hold signal was confirmed.

3:43pm ET: A short signal will be confirmed if, and only if the VIX closes above 33. Anything lower than 33 will keep the system sidelined with a hold signal. Currently @ 33.26!

Unfortunately, as many of you know, the VIX will not settle until 4:15pm. So we may not know until then what the official signal is. An after hours trade or a trade on tomorrow's open may be needed.



12:57: As long as the VIX stays in the 33-34 range, I'll get another short signal. But there's plenty of action left today, especially with the fed release so I won't get my hopes up just yet.

October returns ~ 20%

Much like Oct 2010, the system had another stellar month this year. With a +19.67% return this month, the yearly return is back up to a lofty +26.63%.

This places Oct 2011 as the best month ever for my system. Personally, due to a busy schedule on my part with family and work, I missed a few trades and came away with a slightly less impressive 11%... but believe me I am not complaining! :)

Anyway, just wanted to update you that after a horrible August and ho-hum September, my system appears to be back on track. Here's to another double digit month! Cheers.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Cover/hold confirmed.

3:45pm: The 2nd consecutive cover signal is confirmed. Although obviously since the system is out of the market, it's as good as a hold which keeps it on the sidelines. It's predicting higher prices ahead, though too much risk to go long right now. See ya tomorrow.


1pm: While yesterday we saw a borderline cover signal, today's is quite strong. This may be a warning that higher prices are to follow in the short term. If there are any outstanding shorts out there, you may want to strongly consider taking some profits here.

Once again there will be no buy signal today.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Cover signal confirmed.

It's very close, but the cover signal is going to win today. The other possibility was a hold signal. (No buy signal today.) As I said it's very, very close and I could easily see us continuing down into tomorrow.

Archiving OCT TRADES...


Date
Signal
TNA
Sept 30
Buy33.00
Oct 3
Hold - 1/2 Stopped
27.88
Oct 4
Hold
Oct 5
Hold
Oct 6
Sell36.74
Oct 7
Hold
Oct 10
Hold
Oct 11
Short39.30
Oct 12
Hold
Oct 13
Hold
Oct 14
Hold
Oct 17
Buy39.13
Oct 18
Sell42.39
Oct 19
Buy40.08
Oct 20
Hold
Oct 21
Hold
Oct 24
Short47.01
Oct 25
Cover43.16
Oct 26
Hold
Oct 27
Short52.37
Oct 28
Short51.69
Oct 31
Cover47.51







Friday, October 28, 2011

Short #2 confirmed.

4:30pm: System is 100% short averaged in at 52.03. Apparently, it's not worried about momentum generated by such a huge move on Thursday. I have my doubts, but I am heavily short now despite my worries. Most people are expecting more upside next week, self included, so I'm hoping most people are wrong or at least we get some type of pullback before we go to the moon. Time will tell. Have a drink and forget about the market for a few days. We've all earned it. Enjoy! :)

3:15pm: If SPY closes at or above 128.52, a 2nd short signal will be generated. This will push the system "all in" short.

Otherwise, we'll get a hold signal keeping us 50% short over the weekend. Could get a cover signal if SPY closes around 127.5 or lower. I don't see a buy signal happening today. Will update later...

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Short confirmed.

The short signal was confirmed, barely. Days like Thursday reveal a weakness with my system. By the time you figure out what the signal is, there may be just a few seconds left before the closing bell rings - hardly enough time to execute a trade. It doesn't happen often, but it happens. In this case the good news is that given the upward thrust we had, the closing prices will most likely be revisited even if we gap down on Friday. So, I will be placing a limit short order for TNA 52.37. (Or limit buy order for TZA 27.91) If it fills, great. If not, no damage done.

3:55pm: Holy cow, I had a nice discussion typed up but I just looked at the market and it's screwing me up. We need to close above SPY 128.56 to get a short signal. Otherwise, HOLD in cash.

Strong short signal.

FYI: Very strong short signal this morning.

When the market opened this morning, I witnessed the strongest short signal I had ever seen, ever. It was insane. As the market has weakened a bit (now 10:10am), so too has the signal. Still, if we stay near these levels all day, the short signal will be confirmed if SPY can manage a close above 126.81. See ya later!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Possible short.

3:45pm: I didn't think it would happen, but it may after all... if SPY closes above 124.71, the system moves 50% short again - expecting a short term pullback. Below or equal to 124.71, then remain on sidelines with a hold.



2:29pm: A 95% chance of a hold signal today. I will update later, but it really looks like we'll need to see a late day blast in either direction to get anything other than a hold.

For example, SPY needs to close above 124.71 to get a short signal.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Cover confirmed.

10pm: Well my system has moved to the sidelines. It is expecting a bounce tomorrow and locked in some solid gains. Of course just because it expects a bounce doesn't mean it will happen, which is exactly why we didn't get a buy signal. The chances of a bounce simply were not high enough to produce the buy. If we continue to plummet Wednesday, it will go long for Thursday. Conversely, a decent size bounce Weds will probably give us another short signal. Should be interesting.

Looks like a cover signal. Key number today is tna 43.96. If we close below, we'll get a cover signal. At or above that value, hold short. Thx!

Monday, October 24, 2011

Sell longs and go short.

415pm: The short signal was confirmed (obviously). It was a strong signal so it should be a pretty low risk trade. See ya here tomorrow.

245pm: Short signal is confirmed if SPY closes at 124.81 or higher. Currently its well above, offering an attractive price. A close of 124.7-124.8 is a plain sell signal with no short. And anything below 124.7 is a hold signal. Have a good rest of the day!

At 1047am, I am getting an extremely strong SHORT signal for today. My system is about to melt down with this much red on the screen! :)

Friday, October 21, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Holding could be dangerous here but I enjoy living on the edge. :)

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Hold signal confirmed.

System will hold a partial long position into tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

4:15pm: It was indeed, a strong buy signal.


3:46pm: Even though it seems the market wants to roll-over, I am getting another buy signal. The more the market sinks today, the stronger the buy signal. If we see a slight recovery over the last 10 minutes, it will be a weaker signal - but a buy signal nonetheless.

The system will move to 50% TNA with 50% cash reserves.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Taking profits...

The system is selling this rally. However, there is no short signal today...too much potential for continuation. (But also too much risk to hold longs.) I will not need to update again today. Basically, as long as SPY finishes over 121.70, the sell signal is confirmed. If we reverse downward and close below it, it will be a hold signal with more upside expected tomorrow in that case.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

I'll be closing my short position on the close and going 50% long. Looks like a strong buy signal.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Hold signal.

I will hang onto my 50% short position over the weekend. Apologies for not getting the signal out there in a timely fashion... I was away and lost track of time.

Anyway, what a run this has been! 150 SPX points in a week and a half. The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a solid breakout today. Although, it is approaching its 200day MA - where it will fail on its first attempt.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Hold 50% short position.

Signal is confirmed. Still a few minutes til the close, but it appears to be another VIX down/VXX up day, which is more times than not a bearish sign.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Not the most ideal start for this (healthy) short trade... let's give it a few days and see where we're at. Have a good evening.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Short if...

Short signal if SPY closes positive @ 119.59 or higher...

I was thinking we would get this signal yesterday, but with TNA up another 2% we'll be getting an even better price today.

Ready to initiate 50% short TNA position on close.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Healthy and Hold.

3:53pm: Back to healthy mode. A short signal was looking promising 30 mins ago, but this late day strength killed it. Looks like we'll go higher. Hold signal confirmed.

1pm: As long as we don't see a reversal this afternoon, today being green will flip the system back to healthy mode. This will probably give us yet another hold signal, although there is still a slight chance of a healthy short signal. Will update before the close...

10am: I'm getting a strong short signal. Just a heads up...

I will update later.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Hold confirmed.

System will remain sidelined over the weekend. Have a good one!

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Sell confirmed.

10pm: Longs have been closed and stats have been updated. I'm looking at 3 losing months in a row (so far) which I am not happy about. The recently implemented stop loss rules hurt me with this latest trade...half of my longs were stopped out a terrible price. Hate stop losses!

Fortunately there is plenty of time left this month to right the ship. One interesting thing to note is that a green SPY candle tomorrow will flip the system right back to healthy mode. At that point, it shouldn't be too difficult to get a buy signal sometime next week. I'm ok with that b/c the 200-day MA has to be tested eventually, right?

On the next buy signal, the stop loss would be set at SPX 1074.77. I have a feeling if we break that low, there will be no such bounce like we've seen this week. Bombs away to 1000.

2pm: Sell signal if SPY closes at 116.03 or higher. No short signal today. If SPY closes below target number, then continue to hold longs.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Another hold signal.

Nothing new today. Still holding a small long position.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Hard to tell which way the market will go from here. Path of least resistance is down. I'm carrying a small long position, hoping to get a sell signal sometime this week.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

Just got back to my laptop and ran the numbers... As I suspected, we finally received a buy signal on the close today. I will be placing a limit buy order for TNA @ 33.00 on Monday morning. Stop loss is set for SPX 1101.54.

More this weekend... enjoy!

Monthly signal archiving...


Date
Signal
TNA
Aug 30
Sell
49.25
Sept 1
Hold
Sept 2
Hold
Sept 5
Closed
Sept 6
Hold
Sept 7
Hold
Sept 8
Buy42.52
Sept 9
Hold
Sept 12
Hold
Sept 13
Sell
41.83
Sept 14
Hold
Sept 15
Hold
Sept 16
Hold
Sept 19
Hold
Sept 20
Hold
Sept 21
Hold
Sept 22
Hold
Sept 23
Hold
Sept 26
Hold
Sept 27
Hold
Sept 28
Hold
Sept 29
Hold
Sept 30 Buy33.00




Thursday, September 29, 2011

9/29: Buy if....

Things are looking good for a buy signal but there are still 2 uncertainties.

1) SPX must remain above 1140.

2) SPY must close at 115.05 or lower.


If both of these conditions are met, we'll have a 50% long initialized in TNA. If either one fails, we'll get another hold signal.

9/28: Hold

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Monday, September 26, 2011

Friday, September 23, 2011

Buy if SPY closes below 112.79. Else, hold.

Vacation

I will be on vacation all next week. Beginning Monday, I will not be able to post my signals in real-time. However, I will be updating my page every so often, so feel free to visit. Best case scenario, I'll post my signals during the evening hours - after the close... or the following morning before the open.

As for today, if the market were to close right now, we would be getting a strong buy signal. I'll keep you posted. Also, as a reminder, I am using stops now. So if the buy signal is confirmed this afternoon, we would have a manual stop loss if the SPX dips below 1101.54. In that event, close half of the long position on the close that day. Let the other half ride.