Monday, September 20, 2010

Buy signal forthcoming...

Ok, the S&P has rallied ~100 pts and my system still hasn't fired a buy signal yet. Nice, huh?

However, it appears a buy will be coming. We just need a pullback to the 34 EMA (currently near 1100 - but rising 3 pts everyday). A successful test of that trend line will result in a buy. Nothing is guaranteed, though. In March, we never touched the line until days before the flash crash. We also got a "buy" back on July 30th which resulted in the first loss of the year for the system.

We'll see what happens this time... I suspect patience will be required before the buy is generated. 1125 on the S&P should be strong support.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Observations from the G-fund...

The TSP Trend System went into the G-fund on 8/24/10 on a day the S&P closed at 1052... some 60 points lower than where we are now.  Remaining true to the system, I poured 80% of my funds into the G, keeping 20% exposed in consideration of the positive CCI divergence and other bullish happenings at the time.  Currently (I'm writing this on 9/11), we find ourselves at pretty stiff resistance.  A declining trend line, the 200 day SMA, and the 50% retracement level from the March09 lows to April10 highs. 

Putting reality aside for the moment, here is my short and longer term forecast.   I feel we will consolidate sideways or slightly down this upcoming week to alleviate the overbought conditions, then we rally up to 1170 over the next few weeks.  1170 is my target before we tank back down to 900. Following the fall to major support at 900, I think we rally to new recovery highs within the next 12 months.  I'm guessing between 1275 and 1300.  At that point, I'm loading up on shorts, b/c I foresee a fall below 666. Of course, this is all just fun speculation.  The point of this blog is not for my ridiculous forecasts, but to post updates and signals on my short term TSP trend system.  That said, the system remains on a sell for the time being, and a buy signal won't be generated until my trend lines cross up and the S&P bounces positively off the 34 EMA.  Should my aforementioned forecast become reality and we start our trek up to 1170, I figure a buy signal would be triggered later this month.  Until then, I'm hanging out in the G fund.

If anyone else besides me is reading this, I bid you best wishes!