Friday, September 30, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

Just got back to my laptop and ran the numbers... As I suspected, we finally received a buy signal on the close today. I will be placing a limit buy order for TNA @ 33.00 on Monday morning. Stop loss is set for SPX 1101.54.

More this weekend... enjoy!

Monthly signal archiving...

Aug 30
Sept 1
Sept 2
Sept 5
Sept 6
Sept 7
Sept 8
Sept 9
Sept 12
Sept 13
Sept 14
Sept 15
Sept 16
Sept 19
Sept 20
Sept 21
Sept 22
Sept 23
Sept 26
Sept 27
Sept 28
Sept 29
Sept 30 Buy33.00

Thursday, September 29, 2011

9/29: Buy if....

Things are looking good for a buy signal but there are still 2 uncertainties.

1) SPX must remain above 1140.

2) SPY must close at 115.05 or lower.

If both of these conditions are met, we'll have a 50% long initialized in TNA. If either one fails, we'll get another hold signal.

9/28: Hold

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Monday, September 26, 2011

Friday, September 23, 2011

Buy if SPY closes below 112.79. Else, hold.


I will be on vacation all next week. Beginning Monday, I will not be able to post my signals in real-time. However, I will be updating my page every so often, so feel free to visit. Best case scenario, I'll post my signals during the evening hours - after the close... or the following morning before the open.

As for today, if the market were to close right now, we would be getting a strong buy signal. I'll keep you posted. Also, as a reminder, I am using stops now. So if the buy signal is confirmed this afternoon, we would have a manual stop loss if the SPX dips below 1101.54. In that event, close half of the long position on the close that day. Let the other half ride.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Hold signal.

There will be no new signal today. The lack of a buy signal probably means there is more downside to follow, although on the other hand the market is oversold to the point where it's probably not a good level from which to be shorting. Anything is possible, as early August showed us, but I believe there are too many people expecting a repeat performance. Like many of you, I believe the Aug lows will be broken. I just have no clue when it will happen. Could be tomorrow, could be next week. I also believe soon after the lows have been broken, there could be an absolute massive rally which takes us back to ~1300 before the year ends. These are both just guesses though. I'm doing my best to remain impartial and flexible while also following my system.

I'll leave you with 1 more guess before departing... we will get a buy signal tomorrow. :)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Well, my game plan for fed day was about as backwards as it gets. I am neither short nor long at this point. I'm back to holding cash - along with my system. We'll see how the market digests the fed announcement overnight. If I had to guess, I'd say tomorrow will be green.

Fed Day...

A gap down today would offer a nice opportunity to cover shorts. Fed days have the tendency to melt up into the 215pm announcement, especially after a poor close the day before (yesterday). A pop usually occurs from 215-3pm which is usually something to be sold into again. A strong finish to Fed day many times results in a very weak tomorrow.

Game plan: Cover shorts early, go long early, sell longs after annnouncement, go short after announcment, cover shorts tomorrow. Ready? Break! :)

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Hold signal confirmed.

Lower prices ahead? Perhaps, I'm still not getting a buy signal. But no short signal either, so my system remains on the sidelines. I had a limit order in to cover half my TNA shorts at 41.50 and it got hit. I'll hold my remaining TNA shorts into tomorrow morning at least, and probably through the Fed announcement.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Friday, September 16, 2011

Hold... But go long if...

Two possible outcomes today. Go 50% long TNA if SPY closes at 120.35 or lower. I suppose this is not very likely. Otherwise, the system will produce a hold signal and will remain on the sidelines. I will carry my small short position that I entered this morning over the weekend...unless of course, we get the buy signal. Have a good, stress free weekend!

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Patiently biding my time in cash, waiting for a better shorting opportunity. Tomorrow, perhaps.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Hold signal confirmed .

My system remains on the sidelines. There is too much uncertainty to place a bet in either direction right now.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Sell signal confirmed.

4:05pm: No short signal. System heads to the sidelines with a small loss on the now closed long position.

3:50pm: Sell signal is locked up. Initiate 50% short position if SPY finishes 117.97 or higher.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Hold signal confirmed.

A relatively boring day... I added some TVIX shorts to add to my "long" position. I'm now up to 50% long in my account and 50% cash. Good evening!

Friday, September 9, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Obviously the buy signal is off to a rough start. Hate to see the gap down immediately following a buy signal b/c it usually means the day is going to be ugly. Today was no exception. Nevertheless, next week is a new week. As long as the news is benign and the 9/11 anniversary goes off without a hitch, we could get some sort of bounce next week. Still, 2 questions pop to mind... "Do ya feel lucky?" and...Is holding over the weekend worth the risk? The answer is probably no to both...

The stop loss on the current long trade is actuated if SPY dips below 110.27. So there is some room there - about 50 SPX points. That would equate to a large drop in TNA. At least this time the system is not "all in" yet. We'll see how it goes.

There is still a good chance the chart I posted on 8/31 could become reality. So far, it's been nearly dead-on. If that continues to be the case, next week could be ugly.

Ok, time to relax and enjoy the weekend!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

4:10pm: Strong buy signal confirmed.

3:58pm: Looks like a buy signal. Moving to 50% long.

2:25pm: It looks like a close below SPY 119.67 will generate a strong buy signal. Strong because both healthy and unhealthy modes are generating a buy.

Will update later...

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Officially, the system will remain on the sidelines with a hold signal. Unofficially, the unhealthy signal (which I believe the market status should be) is a short signal if SPY closes at 119.95 or higher. If that occurs, I will take a small position in TZA on the close. Technically, this is a non-system trade since we are "officially" healthy.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Hold signal confirmed.

No new signal today. We might see a buy signal tomorrow. See ya then!

Friday, September 2, 2011

Hold confirmed. 100% cash.

Quick update: I'm back in line with my system, holding nothing but cash right now. On Friday, I nixed the idea of grabbing some TNA for a day trade when prices started to sink in the afternoon. And since the pop I was looking for in the afternoon never materialized I wasn't interested in TZA at the close, either.

For Tuesday, another down day will likely result in a buy signal, while a bounce, dead cat or otherwise, will almost assuredly produce a short signal. I have no clue which way it will go, although I'm hoping for the big bounce scenario so we can purchase TZA at a discount. I'm still liking the chart I posted Aug 31 and I think 1140-1150 is a given after the beating the market took Friday. I suspect 1100 is soon to follow. Anyway, here's to my system guiding us through these volatile times. I hope you are all enjoying the extended weekend and we'll see ya back here Tuesday afternoon.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Hold confirmed.

3:48pm: Hold signal is confirmed.

2:53pm: The system is not interested in buying at these prices and will probably give us another hold signal. While the system will remain 100% cash, I will maintain my short position. The jobs report will likely be a big market mover tomorrow AM... I don't presume to know what will happen or how good or bad the report will be, but I'd say as far as the market goes, the path of least resistance is down.