Thursday, February 28, 2013

CCI Shorts

The JT Composite will move to 50% short TNA as the CCI system fires off a short signal. The JTS will remain on the sidelines in cash. I will remain in cash for now also. Thanks!

 Feb. Signals
Date JT Composite... XIV/TNAJ-TraderCCI
Jan 31 CashShortLong
Feb 1 100% Short TNA 22.04/78.48HoldShort
Feb 4 100% Long XIV 20.61/75.64LongLong
Feb 5 100% Short TNA21.49/77.72ShortShort
Feb 6 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 7 50% Long XIV 21.65/77.69LongCover
Feb 8 100% Short TNA22.11/79.43ShortShort
Feb 11 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 12 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 13 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 14 100% Short TNAShortHold
Feb 15 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 18 100% Short TNAClosed Pres. Day
Feb 19 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Feb 20 50% Long XIV21.98/79.33LongCover
Feb 21 100% Long XIV21.57/76.95HoldLong
Feb 22 100% Long XIVHoldHold
Feb 25 100% Long XIVHalf-Stop Hold
Feb 26 50% Long XIV19.44/75.38SellHold
Feb 27 Cash20.73/77.70SellSell
Feb 28 50% Short TNA20.13/78.23HoldShort
Mar 1 50% Short TNAHoldHold

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

CCI sells.

CCI moves to a 100% cash position joining the JTS on the sidelines. I opted to hold my XIV yesterday despite a sell signal by the JTS yesterday, which was about as marginal a signal as I've ever seen. So that worked out pretty well. Looks like I'll still be taking a loss on my XIV. TNA would've been a better choice this time as it was a winner. Hindsight...

 I mentioned in the comments that I'm leaning bearish due to a potentially large and structurally perfect broadening megaphone on the SPY hourly. I wonder if the market wants to re-tag the upper trendline again before either breaking out or collapsing again. That's way up at SPY 154. Plenty of liquidity and strong seasonality to assist. Time will tell. I'm heading to 100% cash along with the JT Comp. Thanks!

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

JTS sells.

Jt comp scales back to 50% xiv as the jts sells to cash. Cci remains long. I will hold my xiv as well. Thx.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Holding longs...

I hadn't looked at a thing all day until 5 minutes ago. I was unpleasantly surprised! All systems will remain long XIV. I will maintain my 50% XIV and keep my other 50% still in cash. It may be nice to keep plenty of power dry just in case the selloff continues. Thanks.

 PS- UPDATE: JTS half stopped. Market is now UNHEALTHY. Strong rallies (that don't make a new high) should be shorted.

UPDATE #2: I see vix futures have slipped into backwardation, meaning XIV is probably not the best ETF to play any coming rally.  I will keep my XIV for now but will use TNA for any future purchases. 

Friday, February 22, 2013

Hold 100% XIV

Both systems will maintain their long positions. The JT Comp remains 100% long XIV. I will continue to hold mine. Thanks and have a good weekend! J

Thursday, February 21, 2013

100% Long XIV

CCI will join the JTS on the long side today. JT Composite moves to 100% Long XIV (strong contango). I will purchase at least a 50% position on the close, leaving some cash on the sidelines in case we go lower. Stop loss on JTS is SPY 149.43. If this level is breached, the system will flip to unhealthy mode and we'll have to be a bit more cautious on the long side. For now, this looks like a good dip buying opportunity. Thanks a good luck to us. J

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

50% Long

JTS is generating a strong buy signal today, but the CCI is only producing a cover signal, which is a little bit concerning for a long trade. This combo sends the JT Composite back to a 50% long position (b/c CCI is cash). Since I'm following 100% signals only, I too will head into cash with a loss on this short trade. (Could've been worse, I suppose) Aggressive traders might heed the strong JTS buy signal and take on some long-side risk. Not a recommendation, just an observation. Thanks and best wishes. J

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Hold shorts.

The relentless drawdown continues for us shorts. The JTS is signaling a pullback is due for tomorrow, but I doubt this market will ever pullback. No changes for today - I will continue to hold my position. Thanks.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Holding shorts.

Both the CCI (surprisingly) and JTS will remain short. The JT Comp remains 100% short TNA, as will I. Market is closed Monday for Pres' Day so I'll see you Tuesday! Take care and have a great, relaxing weekend.

Thursday, February 14, 2013


The melt up continues, especially and unfortunately with small caps. One glimmer of hope is that the JTS is firing off a fresh short signal today. Perhaps tomorrow will be more kind to the bears. We'll see. Good luck all. J

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Hold shorts.

Nothing new today. Hold signals all around. I will continue to hold my 100% TZA position. Thanks!

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Adding shorts.

All systems will hold the shorts. I added to my TZA position and am now 100% short. I stand to get crushed if we go much higher. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Good luck to all of us.... J

Monday, February 11, 2013

Hold signals.

Nothing new on this boring day... All systems remain short. I will continue to hold my 75% tza position. Thanks!

Friday, February 8, 2013

100% Short (again)

The ping-pong action continues today as both models flip right back to short TNA positions. Will get a little more aggressive here with my capital and go with a 75% TZA position on the close. Good luck to all fellow bears, and have a great weekend! J

Thursday, February 7, 2013

50% Long XIV

The JTS flips from short to long. The CCI will also exit its short position with a cover signal. However, it's just a cover signal and not a the JT Comp will move to a 50% long XIV position. I have personally decided this year not to follow partial JT Comp signals so I will be headed to the sidelines. Thanks!

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Hold shorts.

All systems will remain short.  I will add some TZA on the close if it finishes near its low (LOD).

Thanks and good luck.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

100% short

Both systems are shorting this rally. Jt comp moves to 100% short. I will sell my xiv on the close and just keep my 50% spxu position for now. Thanks! And good luck!

Monday, February 4, 2013


Correction, I will close my TZA position here shortly and will be opening a 50% long position in XIV...not TNA. 

Thanks "Brad" for notifying me quickly of my oversight.

JT Comp flips 100% Long

Both the JTS and CCI are flashing buy signals today.  JT Comp moves to 100% long. 

My first 2 trades of the year have been winners, but because I've lacked conviction and only taken partial positions, I've missed out on bigger gains.  Well... here I am again faced with the same dilemma.  Once again I fear my systems are too early with this buy signal, so I'm only going to take a 50% TNA position on the close.  Eventually, this strategy is going to work in my favor.  I can see this becoming a recurring theme the rest of the year.  So hard to place one's entire account into a single ETF - a 3x leveraged one at that.

Anyway, take it easy.  Congrats if you followed the short on Friday!

Friday, February 1, 2013

100% Short

JTS remains short. The CCI is now also short.  JT Comp moves to 100% short.  I will follow along with a 50% long TZA position.   Speaking of TZA, now that January is gone we will forget about shorting SPXL/buying SPXU.  Those were only temporary ETF's to avoid shorting small caps during January (a time typically favorable to small caps).  I will get more aggressive with shorts next week if we continue to rally. 

In other news, January stats have been calculated.  I'll be tracking the 100% JT Comp strategy alongside the traditional JT Comp stats.

Thanks and have a great weekend!
Best wishes,