Friday, October 28, 2011

Short #2 confirmed.

4:30pm: System is 100% short averaged in at 52.03. Apparently, it's not worried about momentum generated by such a huge move on Thursday. I have my doubts, but I am heavily short now despite my worries. Most people are expecting more upside next week, self included, so I'm hoping most people are wrong or at least we get some type of pullback before we go to the moon. Time will tell. Have a drink and forget about the market for a few days. We've all earned it. Enjoy! :)

3:15pm: If SPY closes at or above 128.52, a 2nd short signal will be generated. This will push the system "all in" short.

Otherwise, we'll get a hold signal keeping us 50% short over the weekend. Could get a cover signal if SPY closes around 127.5 or lower. I don't see a buy signal happening today. Will update later...


  1. As I have commented before, the best EOD-triggered Timing Models are always Cardiac Kids.

    Per StockCharts, and FreeStockCharts, the market closed w SPY ca 128.65--75; looks like the model triggered again.

    Again, I dont think this is in any way a 'flaw' of this kind of Model. The best of them are like matadors working 'close to the bull'.

  2. ..and at 4:20pm the StockCharts official close is now at 128.60.

    The system needs a protocol for dealing with this. Either a backup trigger number correlated w SPY (like NYSE A/D or somesuch), or a protocol for buying at next open... Again, this is NOT a design flaw, it's the nature of the beast.

  3. Yes, but at least today either # produced a short signal.

    Yesterday on the other hand was the really wacky day... I saw SPY closing values ranging from 127.74 to 128.63. And that wasn't at 4:20, that was 8am this morning. Very odd.

  4. "..wacky day... I saw SPY closing values ranging from 127.74 to 128.63. And that wasn't at 4:20, that was 8am..."

    This, from StockCharts..
    We have been investigating reports from users that our data for the end of trading on Thursday, October 27th did not match other sources for several stocks and ETFs. We received the following message from our data vendor:

    "Please be advised that due to late trade activity, there may be inconsistencies in Composite Close from the Pacific Exchange for an unknown number of securities. We are currently investigating this with the NYSE and will provide further information as it becomes available."

  5. Its early but looking like another winner.

  6. Yeah, today was pretty easy to spot. Happy Halloween to all!

  7. Any pull back level projections Michele??

  8. Sorry for not getting back to you earlier Joe. I've been busy putting up the finishing touches on the Halloween dec.

    But what I would have said ( :-) is to watch for support at the 200 day MA at 11,974 on the Dow.

    We closed barely under that but it's hard to tell if the support held or if we were just saved by the bell. More on this in my nightly post tonight.