Monday, August 23, 2010

Trend System Sell - Tuesday or Wednesday...

The green (13MA) line is about to cross below the 34 EMA red line, indicating the trend is down again.  This is a sell signal and hints at more downside in the near future.  It has not crossed yet, but is on pace to cross Tuesday or Wednesday.  I will put another post up as soon as I'm sure they have indeed crossed.

On the bright side, we are seeing some positive divergence in the CCI indicator, posted just below the SPY here.  More times than not, that is a pretty good indication to buy. It's unfortunate the system is out of sync.  We'll see which indicator is correct, the trend lines or the CCI. 

The Tidal Wave Man was mentioning year to date performance today, so I figured I would post the stats of my trend system on here....
(Percentages are calculated using the C-fund)

 12/31/09 - 1/6/10:  +2.03%
 2/12/10 - 2/17/10:  +2.27%
 6/03/10 - 6/15/10:  +1.21%
 7/07/10 - 7/13/10:  +3.30%
 7/30/10 - 8/2?/10:  -2.98% (as of close Monday)

Total return for 2010:  +5.83% 

Not too bad.  The biggest miss was the March and April rally when the system was in the G fund.

Attached: Image of all buy/sell signals for 2010. Click to enlarge.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

The bears are loose again...

The bullish scenario has been hammered the past couple days in a very unhealthy way.  Rallies should be sold or shorted.  My system is still in the market, but won't be for long as I suspect a downward cross of the the EMA lines will occur shortly. Hopefully, when that happens the market will have rallied a bit (a la May 12) so I can get out for a better price.  I see the market going to anywhere between 900 to 1030 sooner than later.   On the bright side, there are some massive gaps up above.  A major bradley turn date was 8/10 which I dismissed at the time.  Oops. 

I'm always wrong with predictions, but I'll give it a shot anyway...

Wednesday, August 4, 2010