Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Short #2 confirmed.

A strong short signal is on tap for today. It's do-or-die time for the model. Either we begin a second leg down IMMEDIATELY or we'll flip back to healthy mode in the next day or two, stopping out half the short position. I am not thrilled by the model's performance this month. I won't be too quick to judge this trade since it's not finished yet, but it's not looking good. I am getting dismayed that nearly the entire year's profits are evaporating just in the span of a few weeks...

Take care and we'll see ya back here tomorrow.

10 comments:

  1. The markets are being heavily influenced by the pomo twist. Tomorrow will be interesting with both sales and purchases. Read that all indicators are fruitless in a manipulated market. We got one. I personally appreciate your calls and constantly check if we agree or not. Other than on twist days, you've been very accurate.

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  2. Also OPEX week shenanigans. Tough to trade.

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  3. I exited the last of my "CCI BUY" longs from the last buy (several days ago) signal today. Been a good run. Thanks, J!
    Let us know when the CCI goes short... In the mean time, I'll start scalin' into some shorts w/ya up here, too.

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  4. J,
    I have been watching your system for a while and and very impressed, thanks for all the help and good work. In conjunction with the 2011 stats, I think I have found how I exactly and systematically want to play your system.
    Rules:
    Go 100% in on any strong signal(long or short)
    Go 75% in on a normal first signal that is not strong
    go with 25% or the rest of account on second signal (strong or not)
    By looking at the stats, if you had the stop loss feature in place last year, going all in on just the 29 strong signals would have netted just under the return of 100% in everytime with stops. This would elimate drawdowns tremendously to achieve close to the same result. Just some of my thoughts.
    Is there any way you could backtest and see the percentage gain of your system last year using this strategy?
    As long as we know beforehand if it is a strong signal or not we should be good to go.
    Thanks again for the help and keep up the good work!

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    Replies
    1. Thanks...Sounds interesting. I'll check it out this weekend.
      -J

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    2. Thanks J, It just seems we could achieve possibly the same return with much less drawdown risk, but I wont know for sure until we see the final numbers

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  5. First off, apologies for not being around here very much lately during the trading day. (Been busy with work and other family obligations.) That is something I strive for though...not watching the market or better yet, not even turning on a computer til I have to. Please don't take it as a sign that I don't care about what is going on here. I have too much on the line not to care. It's just I never trade until after 345p anyway, so why stress myself out.

    Second, the indicator lines that I use to determine market health have crossed in the bullish direction today. It requires a green SPY day to confirm however, so the earliest we could flip to healthy/get stopped out would be tomorrow (Thurs). I will break this down more in the afternoon post today. Also, if you are following my system verbatim, you should still be short and not stopped.

    Best regards.

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  6. Your advice about not obsessively watching your computer is excellent, J. I hope to wean myself away from mine one of these days.

    And, I want to thank you for all the time you take not only to maintain your system, but also to communicate with your followers.

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  7. Maybe we stay short and the possible SPX H&S plays out?
    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/10316-a2z1112-account-talk-3.html#post358677

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