Unique swing trading signals and stock market commentary.
Is it all about reversion to the mean?
Are you referring to my system or the market in general?
It's designed to hang on to trends, especially in a healthy market. Disappointed in the sell signal yesterday. Looking deeper into that signal today, I see where the system went wrong. I'm actually confused why it gave a sell...
Today, it's all about Apple. Oh well.
Sure is. Nothing to add. I noticed a big dump of cash flow into appl last week but didn't play it. Media headlines trying to talk the market down which always makes me nervous when being short. I put on a sizable hedge by shorting tza at todays open. Will set stop tomorrow am and continue hanging on to tna shorts. Other shorts include pcln etc doing well bit may cover to protect.
Except for a few other trend following type investmens, I'm just following J's system.
Which is what you have to do, I plan on following this system exactly for at least the rest of this year. Am just trying to figure out what the best strategy is. I think it might be the 100/75/25 but we will see.
You may be right about the 100/75/25 strategy. I'm waiting for J's analysis.I hope that other people who visit J's site consider following his system (or some other that has robust backtested results) instead of trading in a discretionary fashion. Don't get me wrong: there are some fabulous discretionary traders out there and they make a lot of money. But they're very smart and have studied technical analysis for a long time. Most people who take a stab at discretionary trading end up losing all or most of their money. So, the next time someone tells you they're not taking J's signal, or they're short this or long that, ask them what their long term record is. I'll bet you that they've lost money over time. The hardest part of investing is discipline. If you're on this blog, discipline means following the system wihout trying to outthink it. It's not as easy as it sounds.
I completely agree here. The problem people face with system trading is the discipline. If you are going to follow this system or any other for that matter, you have to follow it completely. Only following some signals will normally result in even worse decisions down the road. Even with winning systems, most people lose in the end because they cannot follow the system to a t. If you are following this system, there should be no emotion involved.
Well, I am not losing money, but still being in TNA would have been nice ;)
Was wondering...Typically the market reverses around 1030-1100 and I am considering putting a small position in TZA for either a short scalp OR if the signal goes to short... well, I guess we'll see...Thoughts?
RMI, if I was looking to scalp a short trade today which I'm not, but if I were I would wait to see if there's a big pop on any fed announcement...I'd short that pop.
True, and I as I watched the market this morning, volume turned down after 11 and the markets started heading slowly up. I could have 'scalped' 0.50 on TZA but the reality is I am not a day trader. I will see what your signal is and go from there. So many people are still staying long and I just see so many reasons to think the top is in and any long play will be short lived.But, heck, what do I know. I was short for 3 months...
Hey J,Congrats on your Apple trade, I was so close to pull the trigger at 560 yesterday, but hesitated because of the money flowing out of apple. I thought the "Smart money" knows something we don't.
I'm curious how you concluded money flowing out of aapl? I use this site showing money flows. aapl was getting lots of luvin all last week.http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow-20120418.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar
Some really excellent comments here. To discipline, I would add patience as a prime virtue for traders. And nerves of steel, for those occasions when it is necessary to take some heat.
Exactly. In a perfect world if you want to trade a system, the best thing to do would never to be able to look at the market or your trading account size or dollar figure. Just Wait for a signal at 3.50, take the trade for x percent of your account, and repeat over and over again. Again, this is a perfect world.
Can't post much now, but if we closed right now we'd be looking at a short signal. Lots of action left today though, so I'll be back later.
markets want to retest the highs, if they fail to push through either today or tomorrow, the declining wedge pattern may move to a nice little wave down. Volume is the key, the high freq's can buy/sell only so many times w/o new month supporting the levels. I'll be watching for money selling on strength the next couple days to see how the blocks are moving. My guess is the market will rally/gap overnights one "better than" earnings while money moves out. The saying of sell in May ... should be a real concern as the supporting floor of cash is pretty thin. Once the buy the dips changes to sell the rips, prices should fall quickly. timing it is key and J-T's got the system I've seen. BTW, covered half pcln and half tza short earlier. No pomo today and tomorrow's is light. Friday, they plan to sell 5-8B. I could see Friday getting ugly. It's also the GDP release which many believe will show a drop in trade def due to declining imports. The spin could create a short squeeze. When in doubt - hedge or get out.