Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Hold signal. 100% Cash.

My system is thinking there may be more on the upside tomorrow but not enough odds to produce a buy signal.  So, we'll sit in cash for another day.  

One thing to mention is that my CCI rules are giving a short signal.  I'm not ready to take a short position yet but if tomorrow is up big, I will strongly consider it.  Until then, take it easy.

15 comments:

  1. Thanks, J... Like the CCI signal, and am going to use it to put on some short hedges against my core longs.

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  2. J, or anyone who's familiar with blogspot: is it possible to get email notification when there's a new post by J?

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    1. I looked into that... From what I understand, I'm allowed to enter 10 emails (no more than that) that will receive emails from blogger when I post a new message.

      How lame is that? 10 email addys?? Why bother?

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    2. You can set up a email distro somewhere, then use that email address for the blog site. The blog site will send the email to the (we used to call them listserv) distro email and everyone on the distro gets it.
      I don't know of a place/site to do that, but I am sure it is possible for no $

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  3. Extremely lame. But thanks for looking into it. Have a good night.

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  4. I might as well use the feature though, as restricting as it may be. Ill open it up tomorrow on a quasi first come first serve basis, with some preference given to "seasoned" visitors and/or active posters. Thanks!

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  5. Thanks for your consistent generosity "J'. Please sign me up: tswanky...at...gmail.com.

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  6. J, you could open a Gmail account, register that one to receive emails from this Blog, and just set the AUTO FORWARD option on the Gmail account to as many people as you like. Then we could all get emails. FWIW, I would prefer emails to the RSS feed, too.

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    1. Excellent! I'll do some testing later today. I'll also make a dedicated post on this topic as well. Thanks!

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  7. There it is again (mean reversion).You wrote, "I'm not ready to take a short position yet but if tomorrow is up big, I will strongly consider it." This appears to be a major ingredient of your formula. Short signal for a rising mkt; long signal for a weak mkt. It should work great for choppy periods, but for a longer trend...?

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    1. Yes, mean reversion is a big part of it, as it attempts to catch tops and bottoms. But it's designed to ride trends to a certain extent. It's not perfect, as proven by an ill-timed sell signal on Tuesday. (Otherwise, it would actually still be long...)

      And my saying I will consider a short with a big up-day tomorrow would be a trade independent from my system (unless it happens to give a short signal). Sometimes I allocate a relatively small amount of money toward my CCI signals, which as I stated gave a short signal.

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  8. Needless to say, I would love to be in your email club.

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  9. J, your answer to David's question brings up a question I've been meaning to ask you for a while, but I don't know if you can answer it without giving away state secrets. But if you can, in a general way, that would be great.
    You've said in the past that your system does well in trending as well as mean-reversion markets. My question is, and without anthropomorphizing the system too much, how does it know if a market is trending or mean-reverting?
    Alex

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    1. When the market is healthy, more times than not, it will be trending upward. When unhealthy, it favors mean reversion or downward chop. Uptrends generally last longer than downtrends...stairs up, elevator down.

      Regardless, when you see a short signal in a healthy market or a buy signal in an unhealthy market, you can rest assured that the market has extremely good odds of breaking away from the established trend, in the very short term at least.

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