this happen before, remember last year when they always release bad news after hours on the weekend? the following monday market does something completely opposite.
Hang in there. SPX just hit a multi-year high a few days ago. Because of this, the upcoming dip we're going to see next week will be a buyable dip. I'm just not sure how big a dip it will be or how long it will last. Regardless of the size or length though, we are almost guaranteed a rebound back above 1400 in the near future to test the highs.
Honestly, I welcome this move, because the mkts are starting to get tradable again... been such a small range lately.... slow-grind trend is very hard to trade.
And it will get much better if the ranges open up, is all I am saying. Look at the past 2 years daily chart and you will see... Jan-Feb of last year, and Jan-Mar of this year were particularly narrow range grind action. Hard to make a lot of money in that. Easier to make money when the TNA is moving 10% or more every day... instead of 2-3% per day. Simple math.
Because something that big would be a washout... shake out some weak hands... and give us a spiking VIX and better range action. It would then set up a great long pop play, which is the trend play. Remember, the CCI signal is on sell, and has a helluva win rate.
Futures dont look good, SPX would be about 1382 as we speak. This would stop me out. Of course now means nothing since europe mkts arent open yet. The 50d ma is about 1370 and could fall to there. Also a support line at 1370 also. Lot of buyers could step in so monday looks like a good daytrade day. I will look to buy at 1370 level if it falls there.
Your work and generosity are much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteThanks J, have a Happy Easter
ReplyDeleteHappy Easter J
ReplyDeleteU.S. gains smaller-than-expected 120,000 jobs
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like our long trade isn't going to go very well...
But who knows, Monday could still be up...
holy crap did you guys see that future market trade? -16 on the es
ReplyDeleteglad we're not open today
Just saw the numbers. I have a feeling we are flipping to unhealthy mode on Monday and our long position will be getting half stopped... :(
ReplyDeletethis happen before, remember last year when they always release bad news after hours on the weekend? the following monday market does something completely opposite.
DeleteI hope so, I have already lost so much this year NOT J's fault... It feels like August 9th to me... time to go take some more Pepto...
DeleteHang in there. SPX just hit a multi-year high a few days ago. Because of this, the upcoming dip we're going to see next week will be a buyable dip. I'm just not sure how big a dip it will be or how long it will last. Regardless of the size or length though, we are almost guaranteed a rebound back above 1400 in the near future to test the highs.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I welcome this move, because the mkts are starting to get tradable again... been such a small range lately.... slow-grind trend is very hard to trade.
ReplyDeleteJ's system has been trading this market very well (25% gain so far).
ReplyDeleteAnd it will get much better if the ranges open up, is all I am saying. Look at the past 2 years daily chart and you will see... Jan-Feb of last year, and Jan-Mar of this year were particularly narrow range grind action. Hard to make a lot of money in that. Easier to make money when the TNA is moving 10% or more every day... instead of 2-3% per day. Simple math.
ReplyDeleteAgree 100%. I also welcome some increased volatility. Slow melt ups are just prolonged snooze-fests.
ReplyDeleteAnd, man, I've been snoozin... but, w/the futs -140 as of the close Friday, Monday should be a lot of fun. Hope they open -150 to -200 on the YM.
ReplyDeleteWe're long the market... why would you want to be down that far?
DeleteBecause something that big would be a washout... shake out some weak hands... and give us a spiking VIX and better range action. It would then set up a great long pop play, which is the trend play. Remember, the CCI signal is on sell, and has a helluva win rate.
DeleteFutures dont look good, SPX would be about 1382 as we speak. This would stop me out. Of course now means nothing since europe mkts arent open yet. The 50d ma is about 1370 and could fall to there. Also a support line at 1370 also. Lot of buyers could step in so monday looks like a good daytrade day. I will look to buy at 1370 level if it falls there.
ReplyDeleteEuropean Markets are closed tomorrow...
DeleteJapan down
Shanghai down
Sigh, tomorrow is going to be ugly