Thursday, April 12, 2012

Sell signal confirmed.

The system remains 100% short. Sorry for any confusion.

Looking at the raw output, I'm getting a strong sell signal today. Interesting that it's not a short signal, though. I can't explain that. A sell signal has no bearing on our position since we are already short. The system remains 100% short.











I will post a chart of a classic "kiss of death" pattern and ask a simple question... does this look bullish to you?

20 comments:

  1. Just to make sure I have it right, we're covering our short and going flat?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, let me rephrase that... we are holding shorts. The sell signal is meaningless to us at this point.

      Delete
    2. Oh, that is NOT what I thought you said.

      Thank you for clarifying it!!!

      Delete
    3. If we were long, we'd be selling today and heading to the sidelines. Since we are already short, we ignore the signal.

      Delete
  2. I am so screwed... now I can't get back into the market for 3 days, and it probably means it will tank or y'all will hit it big going long tomorrow...

    I am done, I have lost too much on my own and losing another 5% today put yet another nail in my coffin...

    Good Luck J, I need a break :(

    ReplyDelete
  3. is the market still "Unhealthy"? when/how does it become "healthy"?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still unhealthy. It will flip back to healthy mode when we have a green SPY candle following a bullish crossover of the Moving Linear Regression Line above the Moving VWAP line. That is still at least several days away...

      If that explanation makes zero sense to you, you are not alone. :) Please see my System Info page which shows it graphically.

      Delete
  4. CCI signal isn't short yet, though, is it? ... I'm still peelin' off the longs from the CCI signal that got in a few days ago... Tx for the strong sell signal, though... puts more confidence in selling up here. Want to get short w/ya when you get a strong short signal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just took a look at it, and it still saying its a buy (?)and a hold on the 4 days period. again i'm pretty new to TA so take it with a grain of salt.

      Delete
    2. Yes, even now 1 day later (Friday) it remains on a buy signal. It's about to fall out of "long only" mode on Monday unless we have a strong up day.

      I find it troublesome to be 100% short when the CCI is on a buy. That said, I think my original system is superior to the CCI system. Guess time will tell.

      Delete
  5. I really wouldn't put much faith in the CCI indicator over the long haul. It's bound to stop working any time. If timing the market were as easy as watching a simple indicator like the CCI indicator, everyone would be rich (which is, of course, impossible).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. correct me if i misunderstood you but we are swing trading not buying and hold.

      Delete
  6. law87, if your question is directed to me, I'm afraid that I don't understand it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you said that CCI is an indicator for trading over long haul as in buying and holding, but what we do is buying and selling every couple of days so why wouldnt CCI be a relevant indicator to how we trade.

      Delete
  7. I see. I'm afraid that you misunderstood me. My point is that an indicator like the CCI is bound to fail as a swing indicator over the long haul. There are countless numbers of indicators that work for a while and then stop. For example, you can backtest and optimize a simple EMA crossover system on a 3 minute chart of SPY. Such a system would look wonderful with a nice equity curve. However, eventually you will discover that the system no longer works because the market has changed. Although I cannot be certain, I fear that the CCI indicator is in the same boat: it works now because it's attuned to the market but it will stop working when the market changes.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I might add that, from what I can tell, J's system is much more robust than a simple indicator and able to adjust to various market conditions.

    Speaking of J, how does it look for the system over the weekend?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Probably some more downside on Monday I'm guessing. Have a good weekend J and thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I missed some good discussion in here today I see... Sorry about that. I've been going down the list of questions and kinda threw out my 2 cents above, but I want to thank Algyros for pointing out that indeed my system is much more robust than the relatively simple CCI rules I came up with. Those rules took a weekend to cook up while my system took many months - closer to a year. That should tell you something.

    Someday I may dedicate a portion of my capital toward the CCI signals, but right now I'm just paper trading it. I don't have complete faith in it yet, unlike my current system.

    Thanks all.

    ReplyDelete