Monday, April 23, 2012

Buy confirmed.

Some quant studies I've seen today suggest we should see a 1-day bounce tomorrow.  My system supports that by giving a buy signal today.  The remainder of the short position will be closed and the system opens a 100% long TNA position. 

It won't take much to flip the market back to unhealthy mode... just a breach below SPY 135.76. Nice to have a relatively tight stop when the apparent downside risk is elevated.

See ya tomorrow.

11 comments:

  1. Thanks, J.

    A hint on how to reduce a little of the anxiety when trading your system: use MOC orders. Rather than worrying about getting the best price, or waiting after hours for a better price, I think it's best just to place a MOC order. Nothing to think about, and, in time, I'm sure that it all evens out anyway.

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  2. Also, could you tell us what quant studies you saw. Although I took the trade, I'm a little worried because I'm seeing a bear flag on the SPY five minute chart. But, of course, that's pretty short term.

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    1. Most convincing study was unfilled gap up followed by unfilled gap down. Bullish on Day 1, but turns pretty darn bearish by day 2 and 3 so hoping we see a sell or short signal tomorrow.

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  3. Didn't the system flip to unhealthy due to the moving linear regression(8) crossing below the moving vwap(5) or don't you use these two indicators anymore to determine market health?

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    1. He described it here with the attached picture.
      http://tsptradertalk.blogspot.com/2012/04/unhealthy.html

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    2. It flipped to healthy b/c we had a green candle Friday after the lines made a bullish cross the day prior. Unhealthy uses a different method...as RMI said, it's the rolling inside/outside reversal. It's satisfied in this case if we drop below the swing low we made on 4/10...

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  4. Seems like we should trade at 1030-1100 and then at the end of the day. Either way; goes up, then trickles down, or goes down then trickles up... grrrr, so much for the bump up this morning, heading to the LOD.

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  5. Almost a guaranteed sell signal at this rate.

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  6. Thanks for the heads-up. Any chance for a short?

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