Monday, April 23, 2012

Buy confirmed.

Some quant studies I've seen today suggest we should see a 1-day bounce tomorrow.  My system supports that by giving a buy signal today.  The remainder of the short position will be closed and the system opens a 100% long TNA position. 

It won't take much to flip the market back to unhealthy mode... just a breach below SPY 135.76. Nice to have a relatively tight stop when the apparent downside risk is elevated.

See ya tomorrow.
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10 comments:

  1. AlgyrosApril 23, 2012 at 4:12 PM

    Thanks, J.

    A hint on how to reduce a little of the anxiety when trading your system: use MOC orders. Rather than worrying about getting the best price, or waiting after hours for a better price, I think it's best just to place a MOC order. Nothing to think about, and, in time, I'm sure that it all evens out anyway.

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  2. AlgyrosApril 23, 2012 at 4:49 PM

    Also, could you tell us what quant studies you saw. Although I took the trade, I'm a little worried because I'm seeing a bear flag on the SPY five minute chart. But, of course, that's pretty short term.

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    Replies
    1. J-TraderApril 23, 2012 at 11:57 PM

      Most convincing study was unfilled gap up followed by unfilled gap down. Bullish on Day 1, but turns pretty darn bearish by day 2 and 3 so hoping we see a sell or short signal tomorrow.

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  3. billydakidApril 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

    Didn't the system flip to unhealthy due to the moving linear regression(8) crossing below the moving vwap(5) or don't you use these two indicators anymore to determine market health?

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    Replies
    1. RealMoneyIssuesApril 24, 2012 at 10:13 AM

      He described it here with the attached picture.
      http://tsptradertalk.blogspot.com/2012/04/unhealthy.html

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    2. J-TraderApril 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM

      It flipped to healthy b/c we had a green candle Friday after the lines made a bullish cross the day prior. Unhealthy uses a different method...as RMI said, it's the rolling inside/outside reversal. It's satisfied in this case if we drop below the swing low we made on 4/10...

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  4. RealMoneyIssuesApril 24, 2012 at 1:12 PM

    Seems like we should trade at 1030-1100 and then at the end of the day. Either way; goes up, then trickles down, or goes down then trickles up... grrrr, so much for the bump up this morning, heading to the LOD.

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  5. J-TraderApril 24, 2012 at 3:34 PM

    Almost a guaranteed sell signal at this rate.

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  6. AlgyrosApril 24, 2012 at 3:37 PM

    Thanks for the heads-up. Any chance for a short?

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