Saturday, November 3, 2012

Weekend Post: Targets and Stats

I got excited Friday morning when I saw SPY was going to open right at it's 50 day MA. This combined with that fact that Employment days that gap up big usually finish lower was enough to convince me to purchase more TZA.  I purchased on the open at TZA 15 and turned the computer off for the next few hours as my wife and I left the house to run errands.  Obviously I was pleasantly surprised to come home and see what had transpired.

Even if you didn't add to your short position Fri morning, the JT Comp has you well in the black if you followed the signal Thursday. 

Cobra has posted an interesting stat on his subscriber site.  Out of respect to Cobra, I won't go into details, but I will tell you that there was a set-up that triggered Friday that lead to a higher close the following trading day 18 out of the past 18 times!   A dead cat bounce so to speak.   This may not exactly bode well for our short position.  If one were to get cute (which I probably will) they might exit the short position on any continued weakness Monday morning.  

If (or when) I exit the short position, I will look to re-enter TZA (hopefully at a better price) for the next dip which I expect will take us to the 200 day at 1380.  That is the plan.  I am guessing any bounce Monday will be shorted by the JTS.  We'll see.  Here's an update of the chart I posted 10/20.

Stats have been posted through Friday Nov 2nd.  All systems made between 5-7% in October and all but the JTS are off to a great start this month.  

That's it, thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of the weekend. See you Monday.


  1. If Friday was a topping tail, a 50% retrace of the tail is a great place to short too...

    Heading to the gym, but will take a better look at this later.

    Thanks J for taking some time this week-end!!

  2. I forgot to mention AAPL in my post. Glad I was patient. I think this dip below the 200 day was just to scare the weak longs out before the next move up. I am getting more interested at these prices. I will look to purchase some shares sometime this coming week. I will keep you all posted on this AAPL development.

  3. Appreciate the weekend update and chart.


  4. Everything will hinge on how the mkts treat last week's lows. It's just that simple. If we clear that w/gusto, CrAAPL's usual "strong buy" signal below the ascending 200DMA will not be wise. My hunch on the CrAAPL chart is that it's "done". Any rally from here or lower will just make a much larger (weekly chart) major topping pattern. For example, 4/2012 will be LS, 9/2012 will be HEAD, and it needs now to make a RS, for a massive H&S pattern on the weekly charts.

  5. Correction: I wrote "if" in that first line. Should have said "when", because we will take out those lows -- I guarantee that. Just a matter of time. If not 2012, then 2013.