Thursday, November 29, 2012

Strong short signal, if...

If SPY closes 141.92 or higher, the JTS will go short on the close. This would finally put the JT Comp all-in short and would be the trigger for me to get even more aggressive. I am ~65% short already as of yesterday, so I will be going 90% short (actually long TZA) if this short signal pans out. According to Overnight Edges, a good chance of a gap down tomorrow. That would be a step in the right direction. Take it easy, and good luck all! J
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21 comments:

  1. AlgyrosNovember 29, 2012 at 3:45 PM

    Thanks, J.

    BTW, did you get a chance to run stats on how an "all in or all out" JT Comp strategy would perform?

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    1. JamesNovember 30, 2012 at 11:20 AM

      Looking at it today. I'm anticipating putting together a weekend post for it. :-)

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    2. AlgyrosNovember 30, 2012 at 11:25 AM

      Thanks, J. Much appreciated.

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    3. AlgyrosNovember 30, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      J, I just wanted to add that it cannot be repeated too often how grateful I am for this blog. You have created a neat community, not to mention some incredible systems.

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  2. AlgyrosNovember 29, 2012 at 4:01 PM

    Also, are you a subscriber to Overnight Edges, J? If so, do you think that there's value in it (as opposed to the free service)?

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    1. JamesNovember 30, 2012 at 11:18 AM

      Not a subscriber, just saw his free 2 minute overview with a "compelling short edge". I guess other factors (seasonality?) outweighed it...

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  3. The Entertainment SpeculatorNovember 29, 2012 at 5:20 PM

    Actually, Overnight Edges seems to be looking for a gap up tomorrow.

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  4. JKHNovember 29, 2012 at 7:59 PM

    Yup... very strong seasonal odds (from O/E guy) for gap up open tomorrow... futs are down solidly now,.... so, good time to grab some and get that extra "oompf".

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  5. AlgyrosNovember 29, 2012 at 9:10 PM

    Thanks, JKH. I suppose that I should know, but who is "O/E guy."

    And, J, do you think that it might be helpful to add some kind of seasonality filter to the JT Comp?

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  6. JKHNovember 29, 2012 at 10:01 PM

    O/E = Overnight Edges

    And 'twas a good buy.. futs up since the reco... nice "oompf".

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  7. JKHNovember 29, 2012 at 10:39 PM

    J... For swing: I added some shorts at the open... took off what I could for B/E+1 on that nice dip mid-day today... and since you called full short at the close, I put back on more shorts at the close. Will continue adding as we move higher... and, again, will be quick to take profits when I see something obvious...

    Bears need to take out today's LOD (tomorrow).... and not on some BS gap.

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  8. JKHNovember 30, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    Give me 1425 and I will add more (and bigger)...

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  9. john9o9November 30, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Strong seasonals here on the small caps as well. Terrible time to try and short that area of the market?

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  10. AlgyrosNovember 30, 2012 at 6:41 AM

    The futures are off and running.

    One thing that concerns me is the MACD histogram on the QQQ. In the past, when it's reached this high a level, a decline has ensued.

    Of course, then there are seasonal pressures.

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  11. MicheleNovember 30, 2012 at 12:27 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. MicheleNovember 30, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    Call me crazy but I still think we're going lower.

    (Previous post deleted due to typo - I wish Blogspot allowed comment editing).

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  13. LanaNovember 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM

    michele

    I'm watching a 50% fib of 1389-1420 around 1402.

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  14. LanaNovember 30, 2012 at 1:12 PM

    meant 1385-1420 Algros said I needed more practice at posting.

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  15. AlgyrosNovember 30, 2012 at 1:24 PM

    Lana,

    I would never say such a thing. Besides, my ID is Algyros, but you can call me Alex.

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  16. LanaNovember 30, 2012 at 1:30 PM

    Alex, so sorry it was Daniel. And I agree with him my posting skills are awful.

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  17. MarcoNovember 30, 2012 at 2:43 PM

    J, I have been wondering for a while, if you were to use IWM data to calculate the signals instead of SPY, would that have an impact on performance of the system and (especially) timing of the entries? After all it would only make sense to use the data from the instrument your trading?

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