Monday, November 26, 2012

Hold signals.

First off, I finally dumped my AAPL (which was sort of used as a hedge) at 588. It was a 20pt gain but it certainly tested my patience when it was flirting with 500 a few weeks back. I think it will retest that level which is why I sold it. As for the systems, nothing new is popping up today. All systems will hold their current positions, thus I remain 50% short via TZA. Thanks for reading. Hope your weekend went well.

11 comments:

  1. For any of your positions that the system tells you to get into, do you have pre-determined stop %ages? tks in advance.

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    1. None. Personally I don't like them so I don't use them. I've found they do more harm than good over time.

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    2. J, once again, I chuckle at how you and I think & trade so alike... can't remember the last time I stopped a position for a loss... many years ago, for sure... Stops (for me) are for protecting profits.... that's about it.

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  2. J,

    You might have missed a question I asked a few days back. In case you did, here it is:

    I was wondering what the returns would look like if the JT comp only went 100% long or short (long when JT System and CCI System are both long, and vice versa). I ask because that's the way I'm using your system, feeling that it's safer to open a position when the JT Comp is 100% sure of its signal.

    Alex

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    1. Great question, I'll investigate it soon. (Probably tomorrow)

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  3. Hi J.
    I appreciate the info you provide on this site.
    I have a question about the strong contango vs contango. You use vixcentral?
    basically we are at almost 12% today 26Nov. At what point is it normal contango or even neutral? Also do you use a rolling ave to decide what strengh the contango is?
    Long entries using XIV are pretty robust here lately compared to TNA.

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    1. I do use VIXCentral. Anything above 5% I considered as strong contango. However, I required a dip below 3% to flip to regular (weak) contango. (I avoided using moving averages.) For the sake of my systems however, this particular topic is moot because XIV is used whether it's weak or strong contango.

      The day it dips below 0% is the same day I switch to using TNA for longs and VXX for shorts. The way we are going, we could be in contango forever and ever and ever...

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  4. Down Monday after Tgiving = bullish for December.

    Yesterdays action is the kind of crap that makes me usually just take-off (for the most part) for December. I fully expect that (overall) the avg daily ranges will continue to contract (as usual for December). The best trading of 2012 is (most likely) behind us, so you won't see me getting heavily leveraged one way or another until 2013. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, though ... The flurry of good trading from Sept-Nov saved the entire year. Hope you guys made a load during that. It doesn't get much better than that. Happy Holidays!



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    1. Thanks, JKH. I too was frustrated by Monday's action. Bears appeared to have a chance yet dropped the ball. I see nothing but UP the rest of the year...

      Friday Dec 14th is it for me. I'm taking a 30 day trading vacation Dec 15 - Jan 15th. Honestly, the 14th can't come soon enough. I'm happy with how the year went and I wouldn't mind taking the rest of the year off, and then some. Especially considering how this short trade is panning out.

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    2. Oh... I could never take off that first week of January.... that's usually a very good week for trading. So much new (ie DUMB) money comes into the mkts then. We usually get really good action. So, it's "too expensive" to take off then. But the last 2 weeks of Dec?... yeah... stink-o grind action, usually w/small range action.

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