Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Hold signals.
Both systems will hold their current positions keeping the JT Comp 50% short TNA and 50% cash. I'm increasing my short position a bit today because when combined with my AAPL position, I'm almost flat (assuming TZA and AAPL move equally in opposite directions, I know - not a great assumption). Anyway, I'm increasing to 50% TZA on the close.
I believe Friday is a shortened day, so be on the lookout for an early signal. Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for my health and family! God Bless!
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thanks and Happy Thanksgiving
ReplyDeleteThank you, J. Hope you and your family have a great Thanksgiving.
ReplyDeleteContinued tossing TNA longs... futs longs... and covering some TZA shorts today. Will take off more futs longs if we do some goofey action while stock mkts are closed over Tgiving. If we gap up big Friday, I'll probably go flat. ... esp if we gap up near to 1400 Sp500.
ReplyDeleteStill gotta be careful shorting, because we have not seen panic buying yet... and the masses are largely out of this 4-day rally... and they want "in", bad, but are afraid to buy here.
And there was some talk of "Seasonality" systems a few days back. Today, Sy Harding's system finally got in long. So, now you got all that seasonality money that will get thrown at the mkts. There's money that will now buy every dip into 2013.... big money. Again, gotta be careful shorting.
And Happy Thanksgiving to all those who contribute to this wonderful blog.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, much thanks to all who post their insights and reasonings here; especially JKH for the many tactical observations and positionings he shares with J-Trader's readers--an invaluable complement to the Model's rigid and macro signals, and JT's own tactical analysis. I know that I've definitely grown as an investor as a result of the multiple exposures.
DeleteExcellent observation above... in fact the Harding version of the "Favorable Six Months System", which uses std 12,26 MACD, did trigger (very marginally) on Wednesday, and more decisively today. I've been very cognizant of it since, as JKH noted, these are designated-units of capital that WILL automatically flow in now.
Interestingly, the Firm which originated the strategy 40+ years ago, and has used that best-6-months strategy the longest, Yale and (son) Jeff Hirsh, in their Stock Trader's Almanac, employs a faster-responding MACD as trigger. And that one has already signalled, days ago-- BUT they have countermanded it, which is rare for them. They expect some weak seasonality into Monday and Tuesday of next week, post holiday, and hope to tactically pick a better entry spot.
This meshes with the JT Comp and its current holding of a .50 short position, so being tactically flat, and feasting on turkey, seems like what the prudent investor would do right about now. Happy holiday to all... and a special thanks to you Algyros for your careful clarity of writing, and your helpful and probing questions.
Wow, they countermanded it?... If their backetesting allowed for such countermanding, then, great... but, I doubt it did. ... thus, making such a move BS.
DeleteHappy Thanksgiving everyone!!!
ReplyDeleteWow...HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!... rocket-ride today. Unloading a barge-full of longs... 'twas definitely too early to short the past 5 days.... but this is a gift, so I'm taking it. I'll rebuy any and all pullbacks until I see the masses capitulate and get back long . Most are out of this rally and really hating themselves for it.
ReplyDeleteThanks, JKH. In general, and from my limited perspective, I agree with you, but I'm also really grateful for your well thought out insights in to the markets.
ReplyDeleteJ, I was wondering what the returns would look like if the JT comp only went 100% long or short (long when JT System and CCI System are both long, and vice versa). I ask because that's the way I'm using your system, feeling that it's safer to open a position when the JT Comp is 100% sure of its signal.