The CCI system will go long once again - its third flip in as many days. The JTS, now unhealthy again, will cover the short position and move to cash. With 1 system long and the other in cash, the JT Composite moves to 50% long XIV. I'm selling my TZA on the close and purchasing another 33% position in XIV. I would go 50% XIV today, but I made a decent sized AAPL purchase earlier so I'm already going to be about 50% long between the 2.
Thanks! And for those that went short yesterday, congrats on the big win!
J
Are you with me, JKH?
ReplyDeleteJ, I'm with ya... but just a smidge. There's no rush to get long here. and I doubt we are done going down. They gotta tag 1380 Sp500.
DeleteDidn't we have some bet a few months back about the mkt slicing down right through 1400 (vs bouncing off it)? I think today was the "slice right down through" 1400. We missed it on 10/26, so that can't count as a bounce-off-of.
Today, we closed within 0.47 pts of my 1395 target from a few weeks back. But, 1380 is still out there. I'd rather be doing my buying down much closer to that, than here. That said, the time for low-risk shorts is done.
NDX (thanks to CrAAPL) is in a serious bear mkt. And not done yet. Wake me when she takes out those June lows. By then, nobody will love CrAAPL stock, and it'll be a great time to buy it.
I like your thought of tagging 1380. Looking at CrAAPL (as you eloquently call it) bothers me a bit to see a stock slice through it's 200 day so easily. I suppose the same could happen to SPX. I believe AAPL will see at least a 5-10% bounce before taking out the June lows. Time will tell.
DeleteSince you brought up the bet, I'm going to call it a draw. SPX 1403 was enough to mostly fill gap support from 9/6 which is all I was calling for. The subsequent 30 pt bounce went exactly as planned. What surprised me most was today's 34 point puke.
Thanks for your input.
CrAAPL is not my own invention -- but I love it. So I use it.
DeleteThe bigger issue is not CrAAPL, as much as the NDX. charts work poorly on stocks, compared to indices. And NDX follows TA moreso than any other index I know.
usually, this is a massive buy signal for me, but I am thinking (and the timing is such) that the NDX will pull the 200dma flat (and then down) and then it is serious, serious overhead, and that will be final confirmation that we are into a massive bear mkt once again.
Tech is THE leader.. she lead up,... and she started leading down over 2 months ago. It was very clear. And she put in those descending NL H&S patterns... those are seriously bearish...and they all triggered w/gusto and then re-teseted and then continued. Someone very large is liquidating for the past 2+ months.
As for our bet, I'm OK w/a draw.
For grins, I'm shorting TZA... may as well swim down-stream whenever I can. Wish I could do that in my IRA. Got some in premkt this morning while I was asleep. Leaving room to add down to 1380.... Hope we get there (today).
"I believe AAPL will see at least a 5-10% bounce before taking out the June lows. Time will tell."
DeleteOr not... that is why I should just stick to my system. :)
You mean the MAY lows, right?
DeleteDunno about the bounce, but I do expect them to go get the stops below those May lows. Bunch of idiot moron newbies all got stops parked there, so it's easy pickin's.... and just a smidge lower from today's close.
CrAAPL is seriously wormy....
Stocks suck .. dunno why anyone bothers w/them, when indices move so much smoother and have much better risk/reward ratios.
I've known so many people who've blown-out trading stocks... far more than those who stick w/indices.
Went with 50% XIV. Thanks J!
ReplyDeleteJ, I guess you missed my question on contango a couple of days ago. I think it is dec vix futures(19.45) - nov vix futures(18.85)/nov vix futures = 3.1 %. Do you think in case of an intraday shift towards backwardation it would make sense to shift from VIX to TNA?
ReplyDeleteI definitely missed your question. I suppose switching to TNA would work, but you miss the potential benefits of contango. As long as we remain above 0%, XIV is benefiting. I prefer not to play the what if game. If it drops below, I'll switch to TNA, if it doesn't I'll continue to play XIV. I try to keep it simple.
DeleteI entered 50% XIV. but seems this could be just a very short-term play -- as the daily/weekly chart of XIV seems still quite elevated - unless we think QE3 would keep VIX down for a long while. However, "fiscal cliff" talks and possible deadlock in congress might add more fears to the market sentiment (and hence VIX) in near future.
ReplyDeleteYes, it seems dicey to be long right now.
DeleteThanks, J.
DeleteI got out this AM with a slight gain.