Tuesday, November 6, 2012
100% Short!
Despite the JTS flipping to healthy mode today, I am getting a healthy short signal. The CCI is also flipping to short. This places the JT Composite all-in short. Very surprising. I just exited my XIV position for a nice gain. With contango still in place, I will be using TZA rather than VXX. Due to the possibility of a huge move overnight due to election results, I'm starting with a relatively small short position with just 33% of my capital. I will add shorts in the morning if we gap up.
Thanks and good luck to us!
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Thanks, J. I'm going to ignore today's signal for the same reason you are and stay happily in cash.
ReplyDeleteMarco, a wise move.
DeleteWell, that'll teach me ignoring your signals.. Great call today, J.
DeleteThanks, I'm in a similar boat wishing I put more capital to work. I guess we have to shrug it off and move on.
DeleteWell, we could have been in XIV... a 1/3 position in TZA was fine for me...
DeleteBought a little TNA at 1130 so I guess we'll see what happens.
Thanks J!!
Started building shorts, getting filled on the push above yesterday's HOD last night. Thank god the futs are open all night. Will scale-in slowly into this one because it looks like we aren't going to be gapping up big today on the Obama victory. Too bad. That wouldda been a slow-pitch.
ReplyDeleteOverall, I do expect the ole "buy the mystery, sell the history" to work, here. So, that's my plan. You just gotta give this one a very long leash at the moment.
Another terrific call, J.
ReplyDeleteI have a question that I've been meaning to ask you for a while. We know the trying period for the JTS during July, 2011. You've indicated that things would have been better had the system had stops. But I don't recall your ever discussing how the JT Composite would have performed during July, 2011.
It performed almost as bad as the JTS with no stops. CCI helped a little, but not much. Starting with $10000 in 2011 using TNA, JT Comp was on fire up until late July at which point it was up to 31,000. It then tanked over 40% in 2 weeks down to 18,000. But like the JTS, it hit back to back to back (etc) home runs in the volatile times that followed the crash and got back to $31,000 by mid September. It finished the year at an astounding ~66,000. 2011 (and 2010) were excellent years that featured some long stretches of elevated volatility and ideal mean reversion. It wouldn't surprise me to never see that kind of performance again, nor do I expect it. I'm ecstatic with how this year is going.
DeleteHere is the JT Comp profit curve for 2011 (TNA).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6umPcUYXrGk/UJp24J4-3iI/AAAAAAAAANs/ez_yauIhzAo/s1600/Composite2011TNA.png
And thank you, A, for the compliment.
DeleteOk, I'm not getting greedy here. I just purchased some AAPL to hedge my short position. Wish me luck.
ReplyDeleteAfter just 1 day, the market is unhealthy again. Ha, I've never seen that happen before. We were very fortunate to get a healthy short signal yesterday. Almost unbelievable. Here's the rundown for today. Since we're flipping back to unhealthy mode, it will be harder to generate a JTS buy signal. That's exactly what we're seeing today. It will not go long today, but it may cover it's short position. The CCI of course is going long, but I feel it may be a day too early yet again. I think we'll test the 200MA soon. But, I'll most likely be taking a long XIV position on the close, in addition to my AAPL position, which is just a speculative play in anticipation of a bounce back up to perhaps the 50day.
ReplyDeleteJT - looks like we might just hit your 1380 target.
ReplyDelete