Thursday, August 9, 2012

Still holding...

Nothing new here. All systems remain short. I picked up a few more TZA shares at 17.25. I had another limit buy order set at 17.10 which didn't fill.

I'm getting a bad gut feeling this market is consolidating before the next move up. I hope I'm wrong... gotta stick with my systems.

Take care!


  1. If gut feelings were reliable nobody would develop timing systems.


    Thx, JT. Good luck tomorrow!

  2. My thoughts exactly. I too have a feeling the market is going to make one more push up, but feelings are unreliable and, in the long run, guaranteed to lose you money.

  3. There's a lot to be said for gut feelings.... some things just can't be programmed. Besides, statistically, the time is running short here for the drop. Statistically, yer right, J, in that if they don't knock this thing lower (soon), then the "resistance" area becomes "consolidation" and the odds invert and it's more probable that we move higher. That's just how the mkts work. And that's why, if we don't start dropping tomorrow, I start putting a tight leash on my shorts that are profitable. And if we get a good gap down open tomorrow, I will start peeling off profits, too. Lowest 4-day (non-Xmas) volume in the past 5 years -- that's why we haven't moved anywhere.

  4. 95% of traders end up losing money. I can't tell you how many people I know who burned through their trading accounts because they let their guts dictate their investments.

  5. I agree on not trading a hunch or gut feeling. The bollinger bands on the 60m charts suggest a big move coming. The charts I trade with are mixed, so this move can be up or down. Big move meaning up to resistance at 1422SPX or down to support at 1390. I am 20% long TNA at the moment.

  6. I should have been more clear... I'm not talking about newbies trading on gut. I'm talking about seasoned traders (ie 10 years or more at this), who learn to read the mkts, and do quite well, some mostly on gut. I always add my "gut" to all system signals, no matter where they come from. Having done this for nearly two decades now, and met and traded with dozens of other traders (a few who've lasted 10+ years, and one fraud), that's what I've learned. And the traders I've known (who've lasted) more than a decade, they all have an element of "gut" in every trade they do, even when they use systems. So, gut is something that the survivors learn. Newbies, on the other hand have insufficient experience to have good "gut instinct".

    And "Investors" trading on "gut" (as you state) makes zero sense to me. The "buy -n- hopers" out there deserve every bit of pain they get.