Covered my YM shorts for nice profits... Dow daily is stair-stepping down, though, so the general trend is down. Will re-set all shorts higher, preferably on a gap-fill from 8/30. As predicted they started hunting stops pre-Jackson Hole and now we got Jackson Hole... Expecting range (and volatility) to increase as we get past August (and Jackson Hole) which should make for much more profitable (larger) moves.
I've given up on predicting where the market will go, having learned the hard way how incompetent I am at such work. That is why I rely on systems that are, by all accounts, far smarter than me.
You guys are confusing two different issues: Direction vs volatility. The VIX is for volatility (mkts go up or down on increased or decreased or no-change in volatility)... though, generally, they do show their best declines during spiking VIX. J-traders signals are for the indices -- direction. Sooner or later you're going to get crushed playing VIX based ETFs off the J-trader signals. The mkts have been range-bound, and that is when the VIX/J-trader signals will synch up. But when the mkts go into their next painful selloff, you will see a monster move in VIX, and it will be the opposite of what you've been doing so far. So, good luck, but Caveat Emptor.
Longing XIV here rather than TNA due to favorable futures structure with strong contango.
ReplyDeleteCovered my YM shorts for nice profits... Dow daily is stair-stepping down, though, so the general trend is down. Will re-set all shorts higher, preferably on a gap-fill from 8/30. As predicted they started hunting stops pre-Jackson Hole and now we got Jackson Hole... Expecting range (and volatility) to increase as we get past August (and Jackson Hole) which should make for much more profitable (larger) moves.
ReplyDeleteJ, would it be difficult to see how the Composite System would have done using XIV in the place of TNA? If not, I would be very interested.
ReplyDeleteAnd, as always, thanks.
TNA is up nicely in pre-market trading today
ReplyDeleteAlex, I will have time to check it out this weekend. As for today, obviously I'm happy with XIV's outperformance. :)
ReplyDeleteRMI, did you dump that UVXY yesterday??!?
J, you are assuming I expect the market to continue to go up.
DeleteI do not
I feel ya and agree with you, but was just thinking you could've gotten a better price today.
DeleteI've given up on predicting where the market will go, having learned the hard way how incompetent I am at such work. That is why I rely on systems that are, by all accounts, far smarter than me.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are confusing two different issues: Direction vs volatility. The VIX is for volatility (mkts go up or down on increased or decreased or no-change in volatility)... though, generally, they do show their best declines during spiking VIX. J-traders signals are for the indices -- direction. Sooner or later you're going to get crushed playing VIX based ETFs off the J-trader signals. The mkts have been range-bound, and that is when the VIX/J-trader signals will synch up. But when the mkts go into their next painful selloff, you will see a monster move in VIX, and it will be the opposite of what you've been doing so far. So, good luck, but Caveat Emptor.
ReplyDeleteActually, for the past year, SPY has a positive .88 correlation with XIV and a negative .93 correlation with VXX.
ReplyDelete