I saw an interesting tidbit on sentiment today. 4 times the amount of money is invested in bullish rydex funds than bearish funds. This is an 8 year record spread. Not a good sign for the market going forward! The sentiment data I use in the JTS (from tsptalk.com) is neutral and has been most of the year.
Back on the topic of market health... using the rolling inside-outside reversal method, the 10 candle range extending from 8/7 to 8/20 was exceeded to the upside on 8/21 and now I'm just waiting on a dip below the range within the next week or so. If SPY can't fall below 139.81, the market will remain healthy and more gains would be likely. The 10-day range from 8/7-8/20 is the smallest I can remember. Only ~22 SPX points from bottom to top. Things could get real interesting soon if we exceed to the downside.
A short-term bounce from these levels is a more likely scenario. After that, who knows...
I'll be closing all shorts and going long today.
(click to enlarge)
total confusion, JT. How can you have posted the above ca 1pm if it is just now coming in, last couple minutes from timestamp above?
ReplyDeleteIn any case, interesting development. Thx.
Even though I lost about 5% on this last trade, my account is still up over 38% this year in large part to your system. Thanks for all your hard work, and keep it comin'! :)
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear about your loss. If it makes you feel better, I took a decent chop, too. I suppose it's all part of trading. Glad to hear you're doing so well YTD. Better than me, keep it up! And thanks for checking in.
DeleteNice move down, J. But careful correlating to 3/6 ... the drop that day was a nice exhaustion move (shake-out).... about double the size of the move we had today. Today, to me, still looked like controlled selling -- no panic/exhaustion yet.
ReplyDeleteAs I said the last two days, 1403 is key. They hit that today (finally) but we didn't get much reaction. If they clear 1408 tomorrow, yer buy signal should get a good one-day juicer... if not, then the bears still own this.
I'm trailin' stops... some will hit if we print 1408 after 9:45am tomorrow... and will cover a pile on a bigass gap down tomorrow, as well as any move below today's LOD. No rush to get in long here, though.
I will bet that your system goes unhealthy soon, J.
Thanks for the comments, JKH. Always appreciated.
ReplyDeleteDaniel, I drafted this post in the early afternoon but didn't publish until I was sure both systems were going to go long. Once that was in the bag, I transmitted. Blogger apparently likes to time-stamp my posts when I initialize the posting process. Thanks!
>> "..Blogger apparently likes to time-stamp my posts when I initialize..."
Delete--All well and good, JT, but Tolstoy didn't publish War and Peace when he started it, but rather when he sent it.
:)
I'm just trying to get a sense of when the signals actually come in, because in addition to automatic following of them with allocated funds, I also use them to nuance other elements of Total Portfolio-- and price can move quite a bit even in the last ten minutes.
Yeah, I go now to AH trading and picked up a little TNA last night. I too will put a trailing stop once in the money as I do not believe any pop from here will be long lasting... I wonder if we go to cash for the week-end ;-)
ReplyDeleteGoing lower on pre-market, so I hope it improves... I hate to use up all my free trades on losing positions :-(
ReplyDeleteWow, I guess 1030 was the witching hour...
DeleteI may take my longs and wait with my remaining UVXY for next week... who knows
I'm still holding my TZA shares and maybe today will get me out of the red. We shall see...
ReplyDeleteJ, thoughts for this afternoon's signal?
ReplyDeleteI was gone all day with kids. Just got back, i'll update here sooner than later.
ReplyDeleteThanks
DeleteBoth systems are holding the long position.
ReplyDeleteInteresting, ok, thanks
DeleteFuck you, you piece of shit!
ReplyDelete