Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Holding tight.

All system will continue to hold their 100% short positions. This morning looked bad for us shorts, but now things look... we'll say a little less bad. Let's hope the high is in and we begin a meaningful pullback the rest of the week. See ya tomorrow.

12 comments:

  1. thx! Model is a bit of a cardiac kid today, it came in post 3:50... but still quite timely since it turned out a hold. I may want to add a bit into the close-- the inevitability-of-new highs factor could be shaken for bulls after this selloff, unless the close is strong...

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  2. Back from Vacation and wow, what a day ... added more shorts w/ya J... liked the late-morning reversal. I'll start peeling off $55 or lower. Bears need to take out 1403 SPX tomorrow... we see that, and we should be set for a very nice pullback.

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  3. After this strong of a rally, I suspect any continued weakness the next couple days should be bought - with conviction!

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  4. 1030am: The time to buy.

    Let's see if they can ramp it yet again...

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  5. Ok, quick questions. Now that I can short, is it better to short TNA or buy TZA? and why?

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  6. I've found no significant difference when it comes to swing trading. I used to lean toward shorting, but 2 annoying things were happening.

    1 - there are not always shares available to short.
    2 - sometimes your broker will call you with a "buy in" where they force you to cover your shorts when you may not be ready to just yet. Plus it always seems to happen when a trend change is approaching. So you may be underwater at the time. But I suppose if you're good and disciplined, you can use this info to your advantage!

    Anyway, for those reasons I've just been buying tza recently.

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    Replies
    1. Gotcha, thanks...

      I wasn't sure if shorting TNA helped to limit the degradation of price...

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    2. Well there is definitely decay in TZA in an up trending market, but TNA would be experiencing compounding against you in a similar fashion/rate if you were shorting it.

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    3. J or anybody, Have you ever had a short sale called on you? I have run accross the "no shares available" many times, but never have been called out once I went short.
      What worrys me is if they call you out, it will be most likely be at an extreme volitile time and the price might be what whatever the market is at the time and it wont be pretty. That said, I think TNA/TZA with the high volume they trade at you would be pretty safe.

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    4. Regarding decays...if you are trading short term like J's model, TNA/TZA is a dream compared to options. If you want more than 3X, then options or futures is what you need to trade.

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  7. Cobra says today has extremely high chances of closing green. So either something bigger is going on, or right now is a great time to buy a TNA hedge.

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