Long

All systems will remain 100% long. Have a good weekend!

Book-keeping time.... August Trades...

Date	JT Composite	TNA	J-Trader	CCI
Jul 30	Cash	52.40	Long	Short
Aug 1	Cash		Hold	Hold
Aug 2	Long	47.94	Hold	Long
Aug 3	Short	51.34	Short	Short
Aug 6	Short		Hold	Short
Aug 7	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 8	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 9	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 10	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 13	Cash	53.68	Long	Hold
Aug 14	Cash		Hold	Hold
Aug 15	Short	54.54	Short	Hold
Aug 16	Short		Short	Hold
Aug 17	Short		Short	Hold
Aug 20	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 21	Short		Hold	Hold
Aug 22	Half-Short	56.22	Hold	Cover
Aug 23	Long	55.13	Long	Long
Aug 24	Long		Hold	Hold
Aug 27	Long		Hold	Hold
Aug 28	Long		Hold	Hold
Aug 29	Half-Long	57.24	Sell	Hold
Aug 30	Long	55.52	Long	Long
Aug 31	Long		Hold	Hold

JTS long again...

The JTS moves back to a buy signal. CCI remains on a buy. Thus, the JT Comp system moves back to 100% long. Thanks!

JTS sells...

The JTSystem is selling it's long position and going to cash. (No short) The CCI system remains long. This scales back the JT Composite system back to 50% long/50% cash. Looks like it's time to reduce risk a bit.... Take care.

Holding longs.

All systems remain long. I thought we were going to get a sell signal today, but not quite. Maybe tomorrow... See ya then.

Hold signals confirmed.

Nothing new today. All systems remain long. Thx.

Holding longs.

All systems will hold the long position. Personally, my long position is relatively small - about 25%. Holding more than that this weekend would make me a bit uncomfortable. :) Have a good one, see ya next week!

J

100% Long.

Both systems are going long today. Several indicators inside the JTS are pointing toward a short term bounce. Some caution is advised as the half-stop for the JTS is at a very tight SPY 139.81. Any dip below this level flips the system to unhealthy and warns of a possible correction. Meanwhile, the CCI is giving a mature trend buy signal. The last time this happened was March 6. Go check what happened immediately after that signal.

I saw an interesting tidbit on sentiment today. 4 times the amount of money is invested in bullish rydex funds than bearish funds. This is an 8 year record spread. Not a good sign for the market going forward! The sentiment data I use in the JTS (from tsptalk.com) is neutral and has been most of the year.

Back on the topic of market health... using the rolling inside-outside reversal method, the 10 candle range extending from 8/7 to 8/20 was exceeded to the upside on 8/21 and now I'm just waiting on a dip below the range within the next week or so. If SPY can't fall below 139.81, the market will remain healthy and more gains would be likely. The 10-day range from 8/7-8/20 is the smallest I can remember. Only ~22 SPX points from bottom to top. Things could get real interesting soon if we exceed to the downside.

A short-term bounce from these levels is a more likely scenario. After that, who knows...
I'll be closing all shorts and going long today.

(click to enlarge)

CCI covers... JTS still short.

The CCI system will cover today, but will not initiate a long position. The JTS will remain short. This combo scales the JT Composite system's short position back to 50%. The other 50% goes back to cash.

See ya back here tomorrow.
J

Holding tight.

All system will continue to hold their 100% short positions. This morning looked bad for us shorts, but now things look... we'll say a little less bad. Let's hope the high is in and we begin a meaningful pullback the rest of the week. See ya tomorrow.

Shorts will ride...

CCI and JTS will hold the short position for at least another day. I saw a study over the weekend that suggests there is a strong probability that SPY will see a 2% pullback this week. One can hope! :) Hope you had a relaxing weekend.

Same time tomorrow...

Holding shorts.

JTS is giving an ultra rare 3rd consecutive short signal. So either this is January all over again and we go up forever, or we are going to make some money back next week.

Today would've been fine (read: no damage), except for TNA misbehaving...

Have a good weekend. I'm off to forget about this market until Monday. See ya then!

JTS Short #2

The original JT System gives another short signal. CCI remains short, so the JT Comp remains short. I will be adding to my short position, which is already giving me some pain.

Take it easy.

Correction: Composite goes short.

The JTS signal changed to short after the close (occasionally this will happen with some prices not settling until 415p). With the CCI also short, the JT Composite now moves to 100% short.

AH prices are more favorable than closing prices so I will be purchasing some TZA in the next few minutes and will likely buy more tomorrow on any strength, whether it be a gap up or intraday.

Thanks!

Hold signals.

I had mentioned in the comment section that the JTS was giving a short signal earlier today. That has since disappeared. It will continue to hold longs. Meanwhile, nothing new with the CCI...just waiting for a pullback...so it remains short. This keeps the JT Comp in cash.

Should VXX close in positive territory with the $VIX down, it will trigger a bad sign for stocks. I have listed stats in the past (don't have time to dig them up) but I will remind you it triggered back on 7/18. TNA then went on to lose ~7 points over the next 4 sessions. Bulls should tread cautiously.

Holding cash.

No changes today... the JTS will remain long, the CCI short, and the Composite in cash. I'm bearish biased, but that doesn't mean much. See ya tomorrow.

JT Comp to cash...

The JTS will go long today. Meanwhile the CCI will remain short. This combo sends the Composite system to 100% cash. Happy Monday.

Hold confirmed.

Like a broken record, nothing new to report today. My systems and I remain short although it feels like I should be in cash. Only time will tell... Have a good weekend! See ya Monday.
-J

Still holding...

Nothing new here. All systems remain short. I picked up a few more TZA shares at 17.25. I had another limit buy order set at 17.10 which didn't fill.

I'm getting a bad gut feeling this market is consolidating before the next move up. I hope I'm wrong... gotta stick with my systems.

Take care!

Holding shorts...

CCI is giving yet another short signal. JTS is a hold. The JT Comp remains 100% short. This sucker is going down sooner or later. FYI: TZA is being offered at discount prices this week. :) See ya tomorrow!

Hold confirmed.

Nothing new today. All systems are holding the short position. Thx.

Holding shorts.

All systems will remain short. CCI is giving another short signal. JTS is officially just a hold. I'll be adding to my TZA position. Thanks.

Weekend thoughts...

On Friday I commented that my recent run of good fortune probably won't last. 14 winning trades in a row, and 18 winners of the past 19. I'm not saying this to boast. I'm actually in a precautionary mode, trying to lower my (and to some extent your) expectations. All good things come to an end, as the cliche goes. I should probably just stop trading the rest of the year, but what fun is that?!! :)

An admirable suggestion was made that I track the recent performance of each system and bias my trading decisions toward the better performer. I've tossed this idea around in my head the past few days and have decided not to do that at this time. The main reason for that is the JT Composite system. The purpose of the JT Composite is to hedge bets and reduce risks. When you start pitting the JTS up against the CCI trying to find which one may perform better in the future, you're right back at square 1. There is no guarantee that recent performance has any bearing on the future.

I will offer more support for strictly following the JT Composite. The chart below represents the daily balance of my actual trading account. (It doesn't go back to Jan 1, 2012 because I'm not using my trading computer right now and don't have the numbers.) The % gain/loss does go back to Jan 1. I did not have the best January so the chart starts below 0%. I've marked where the CCI and JT Comp systems went live. Until the JT Comp system came online, every good stretch was followed by an equally depressing drawdown. As soon as I recovered all my money for the year, I went right back down. Now, I'm not saying the JT Composite system is perfect, but results so far have been outstanding.












The biggest reason for the increased returns has probably been a mean reversion environment vs a persistent trend. It will be interesting to see how my systems (and specifically the JT Comp.) perform when stocks move in just 1 direction. That has to happen sooner or later. For now, I'll enjoy what appears to be a 3rd wave up in my account. (Shout out to all the EW'ers!!) lol

Final thoughts: I went heavily short Friday so I'm back in the bear camp. It's odd flipping back and forth so quickly. It can really screw up your thinking. Just days ago, I wanted desperately for the market to rally.... Now I have to purge all those thoughts. Anyway, have a good remainder of the weekend. I'll be pulling for Tyson Gay tonight to take down The Bolt. Cheers!

Short!

CCI is definitely going short, no doubt about that. Still a small chance the JTS won't give a short signal. If SPY closes 138.94 or lower, JTS will only give a SELL signal (no short). If this unlikely scenario unfolds, the JT Comp will only go 50% short/50% cash. But if we close 138.95 or higher, JTS will go short as well, sending the Comp back into a 100% short position. Those are the only 2 options. Have a good weekend! It's my intention to post something interesting tomorrow or Sunday so heads up for that. Take it easy!

100% long.

JT Composite will move to a 100% long TNA position on the close. This is a result of the CCI flipping from short to long today. The JTS remains long. I will take a healthy position in TNA - though not 100%. If CCI turns out to be a day early, which I don't think it will this time, I will buy more TNA tomorrow. However, again, I don't think tomorrow will be a down day. Happy trading!

Holding cash.

All systems are producing hold signals today, keeping my Composite system parked in cash. That's quite alright with me. I don't have a single clue what's going to happen tomorrow. See ya then.