Thanks! The market has been manic lately. My system was flipping all over the place. I saw all 5 signals at some point or another today, which I can't remember ever happening. When all was said and done, the hold signal won out! Here's hoping for a short squeeze next week. :)
>> “My system was flipping all over the place. I saw all 5 signals at some point or another today, which I can't remember ever happening.”
Here’s some food for thought, an exerpt from the Daily Recap done by D.Fry, pundit, on his ETF Digest site..
‘OPTIONS EXPIRATION MANIPULATIONS’ - “It’s hard to read much into an options expiration day, since specialists and floor traders are busily hunting down strike prices to disadvantage the unsuspecting. It is the House of Games, a mechanical and manipulated event, so we can’t rely on this type of action, as the 5 minute SPY chart well reveals (especially the last half hour).
......Given trading displays like Friday it’s no surprise retail investors are leaving markets in droves.”
My sense for a while has been that either a highly-manipulated day, or a very News-driven day where the news is metered out through the day, will disturb the ‘organic, market-driven patterns’ for a short while, until they recalibrate to their intrinsic crunched levels, their true numeric assessment of price and value. And today we had both.
We had the President speaking, and we had a rigged-up Eurobank stress test announcement, that fooled some of the people, for an appallingly short time; and then a jacked up close which showed up as parallel movements in all the major indexes but was not echoed in the patterns of smaller individual sector funds. “Basket-buying” they call it, and if you aren't in the basket then you aren't scooped up by the giant hands.
So JT the above is offered as a possible partial explanation for the “non-normal” and erratic gyrations you referred to in your comment, and which was also echoed in the comment of Jim: “Having the same problem with my TA system also......Probably driven by all of the market chaos and noise.”
Again, please, never a word of apology for a signal coming in at the very last moment. The only words should be words of thanks, from us, your readers and co-participants, for your generousity in sharing this adventure with us.
JT, just found your clear-minded blog. and is still in learning stage now. noticed a few gaps in the trade log, for example, the buy on June 24 does not have a corresponding sell trade. is there something I am missing in the model -- my current understanding is buy/sell and short/cover are two independent sets of signals, while Hold could be used in both set. is this correct?
My interpretation was that on July 1 the model covered the June 24th buy and then went short on the same day (flipped from long to short on the July 1 close).
You're not the first person to question this. I will have to be more clear about this somewhere on the homepage. 99% of the time I will say within the text of the post to close the current position and then follow the new signal. See my post from June 24th for example when we went from short to long on the same day. http://tsptradertalk.blogspot.com/2011/06/cover-and-buy.html
So jtthomp is correct. We never have 2 positions open at a time. We are either long, short, or waiting. Thanks for the feedback.
Good weekend to you too, JT-- you cardiac kid you.
ReplyDelete:)
Thanks! The market has been manic lately. My system was flipping all over the place. I saw all 5 signals at some point or another today, which I can't remember ever happening. When all was said and done, the hold signal won out! Here's hoping for a short squeeze next week. :)
ReplyDeleteHaving the same problem with my TA system also.
ReplyDeleteAlso using your system for some trades.
Probably driven by all of the market chaos and noise.
Thanks
>> “My system was flipping all over the place. I saw all 5 signals at some point or another today, which I can't remember ever happening.”
ReplyDeleteHere’s some food for thought, an exerpt from the Daily Recap done by D.Fry, pundit, on his ETF Digest site..
‘OPTIONS EXPIRATION MANIPULATIONS’ - “It’s hard to read much into an options expiration day, since specialists and floor traders are busily hunting down strike prices to disadvantage the unsuspecting. It is the House of Games, a mechanical and manipulated event, so we can’t rely on this type of action, as the 5 minute SPY chart well reveals (especially the last half hour).
......Given trading displays like Friday it’s no surprise retail investors are leaving markets in droves.”
My sense for a while has been that either a highly-manipulated day, or a very News-driven day where the news is metered out through the day, will disturb the ‘organic, market-driven patterns’ for a short while, until they recalibrate to their intrinsic crunched levels, their true numeric assessment of price and value. And today we had both.
We had the President speaking, and we had a rigged-up Eurobank stress test announcement, that fooled some of the people, for an appallingly short time; and then a jacked up close which showed up as parallel movements in all the major indexes but was not echoed in the patterns of smaller individual sector funds. “Basket-buying” they call it, and if you aren't in the basket then you aren't scooped up by the giant hands.
So JT the above is offered as a possible partial explanation for the “non-normal” and erratic gyrations you referred to in your comment, and which was also echoed in the comment of Jim: “Having the same problem with my TA system also......Probably driven by all of the market chaos and noise.”
Again, please, never a word of apology for a signal coming in at the very last moment. The only words should be words of thanks, from us, your readers and co-participants, for your generousity in sharing this adventure with us.
Daniel
JT, just found your clear-minded blog. and is still in learning stage now.
ReplyDeletenoticed a few gaps in the trade log, for example, the buy on June 24 does not have a corresponding sell trade. is there something I am missing in the model -- my current understanding is buy/sell and short/cover are two independent sets of signals, while Hold could be used in both set. is this correct?
TIA
My interpretation was that on July 1 the model covered the June 24th buy and then went short on the same day (flipped from long to short on the July 1 close).
ReplyDeleteYou're not the first person to question this. I will have to be more clear about this somewhere on the homepage. 99% of the time I will say within the text of the post to close the current position and then follow the new signal. See my post from June 24th for example when we went from short to long on the same day.
ReplyDeletehttp://tsptradertalk.blogspot.com/2011/06/cover-and-buy.html
So jtthomp is correct. We never have 2 positions open at a time. We are either long, short, or waiting. Thanks for the feedback.