Sunday, July 3, 2011

Monthly wrap-up

June kicked off with a short signal on the first of the month, which I remember at the time just didn't feel like the right trade. One thing I have learned though is that the best trades usually are the ones that are the most uncomfortable.  It was followed the next day by a buy signal which actually felt good.  We know how that trade turned out.  About the only positive thing I can say about it was that half my money was locked up in cash as the market sank.  The market fell enough by Jun 6 to flip the status to unhealthy. On the next pop, the system fled to safety on Jun 14.  That didn't last long as another buy signal was generated the next day.  A few days later we were out with another decent profit.  A profitable short signal was generated on the 21st.  The market was beginning to show signs of life that week as it bottomed and a strong buy signal was generated on the 24th.  I gave it a 40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days, and sure enough TNA went up 16% in 5 days.  Not bad! Of course, I only captured half of that since I was only 50% long.

For the month, June was up a modest 2.89%.  However, July is already up 8.08%(!) since we closed the long trade on the 1st.  I strive for 5% a month so we are off to a good start and making up nicely for a sub-par June.  For the year, we are up nearly 40%!  (+39.81% to be exact.)  I'm not sure how long the system can maintain this kind of exceptional performance, but I'm sure enjoying the ride.  Since we got a short signal, I'm guessing we'll see a small/quick pullback before the market heads higher.  It doesn't matter what I think though...I tend not to argue with something that is up 40% in 6 months. :)  Have a great 4th weekend. See ya back here on Tuesday.

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