Unique swing trading signals and stock market commentary.
Friday, December 28, 2012
JTS Strong buy signal.
All systems remain long. In fact, the JTS is giving a strong buy signal. If I was trading, I would be going very long on the close today. Thanks and have a great weekend.
Looking at the historical stats, I am intrigued to see the 2011 return for CCI: 600+%. How do we make sense of what worked for CCI then? And watch out for similar in future? ;-)
Wishing everyone on this forum a very happy and successful 2013.
Bot more longs today... got a decent pile of longs .... and that 4:15pm drop was REALLY sweet. Don't recall ever seen 'em take it down -100 more points in the last 15min after the cash is closed... Took a chance on some TNA longs since Futs were closed at that time. This is one of those times where you just plug your nose and keep buyin'. Just don't over leverage your accounts, fellas.
Give me another big gap down open Monday and I'll add more. Same w/Wednesday. Mkt is closed Tuesday. Monday bond mkt closes early, and that usually craps-out the mkt action.
Great stuff! The last few times I have seen so many traders predicting a crash going into the weekend we saw huge reversal. I remember with Greece there was a CNBC special on Sunday night. By Monday AM futures were high quite a bit.
Thanks for your guidance. Holding TNA bought Dec. 27 @ 59.15, encouraged by J-Trader's strong buy signal. Otherwise, would have sold, per Carl Futia's blog comments ystdy morn: "Today's day session range estimate is 1390-1409. A weak close today would be very bearish and would probably mean that the ES is headed below its November low point." That would mean we drop over 4% from here. The closing minutes were VERY bearish indeed. Here's hoping J-Trader's view is accurate.
As a side note, here's a nice graph from Rob's free service that shows something I mentioned about 2 months ago... We always need to keep in mind that our statistics are always evolving, the mkts tend to be mean-reverting, and you never know when the "best of the best" is going to just start crankin' repeated losses for ya. 29 years 100% win rate, then WHAM everyone was talking about how it was so predictable and it's failed 11/12 since. That's life. And we've seen switches like this a few times this year from these stats services. I love what they offer, but always take it w/a grain of salt. My guess as to why that particular forecast fails now so badly is two-fold: (1) net bear market the past 12 years (vs net bull prior decades) and/or (2) everyone hyped it 12 years ago... just too well known.
That graph is very telling. Here's an article that discusses a similar situation: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2012/12/24/follow-up-to-qusmas-ibs-and-relative-value-mean-reversion/.
The point is that when they tell you that backtesting doesn't predict future performance, they mean it.
My guess is that the less complicated the strategy, the more likely it is to continue to work well, but, the more likely it is to have returns that aren't that much better than buy and hold. Good examples are trading the Golden Cross and this: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/roundup-tactical-asset-allocation/.
Here's an excellent article about the reliability of backtested results: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/08/06/listen-up-backtesting-is-not-real-time/.
And, it's good to know that J's systems have passed the biggest test: they've performed very well indeed in real time.
thanks
ReplyDeleteJ
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for your hard work and generosity.
Looking at the historical stats, I am intrigued to see the 2011 return for CCI: 600+%. How do we make sense of what worked for CCI then? And watch out for similar in future? ;-)
Wishing everyone on this forum a very happy and successful 2013.
Bot more longs today... got a decent pile of longs .... and that 4:15pm drop was REALLY sweet. Don't recall ever seen 'em take it down -100 more points in the last 15min after the cash is closed... Took a chance on some TNA longs since Futs were closed at that time. This is one of those times where you just plug your nose and keep buyin'. Just don't over leverage your accounts, fellas.
ReplyDeleteGive me another big gap down open Monday and I'll add more. Same w/Wednesday. Mkt is closed Tuesday. Monday bond mkt closes early, and that usually craps-out the mkt action.
Great stuff! The last few times I have seen so many traders predicting a crash going into the weekend we saw huge reversal. I remember with Greece there was a CNBC special on Sunday night. By Monday AM futures were high quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your guidance. Holding TNA bought Dec. 27 @ 59.15, encouraged by J-Trader's strong buy signal.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, would have sold, per Carl Futia's blog comments ystdy morn: "Today's day session range estimate is 1390-1409. A weak close today would be very bearish and would probably mean that the ES is headed below its November low point." That would mean we drop over 4% from here. The closing minutes were VERY bearish indeed. Here's hoping J-Trader's view is accurate.
As a side note, here's a nice graph from Rob's free service that shows something I mentioned about 2 months ago... We always need to keep in mind that our statistics are always evolving, the mkts tend to be mean-reverting, and you never know when the "best of the best" is going to just start crankin' repeated losses for ya. 29 years 100% win rate, then WHAM everyone was talking about how it was so predictable and it's failed 11/12 since. That's life. And we've seen switches like this a few times this year from these stats services. I love what they offer, but always take it w/a grain of salt. My guess as to why that particular forecast fails now so badly is two-fold: (1) net bear market the past 12 years (vs net bull prior decades) and/or (2) everyone hyped it 12 years ago... just too well known.
ReplyDeletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sjBsfS5NFTU/UN-uVLiinaI/AAAAAAAACjI/0Fh37TBhccw/s640/2012-12-29.png
That graph is very telling. Here's an article that discusses a similar situation: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2012/12/24/follow-up-to-qusmas-ibs-and-relative-value-mean-reversion/.
ReplyDeleteThe point is that when they tell you that backtesting doesn't predict future performance, they mean it.
My guess is that the less complicated the strategy, the more likely it is to continue to work well, but, the more likely it is to have returns that aren't that much better than buy and hold. Good examples are trading the Golden Cross and this: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/roundup-tactical-asset-allocation/.
Here's an excellent article about the reliability of backtested results: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/08/06/listen-up-backtesting-is-not-real-time/.
ReplyDeleteAnd, it's good to know that J's systems have passed the biggest test: they've performed very well indeed in real time.