Both the JTS and CCI systems are going long today. I will ditch all my TZA for a sizable loss (thanks a lot CCI) and move to 50% long XIV and 50% cash, leaving some on the side in case weakness continues into early next week. Thanks, good luck, and have a good weekend.
J
Well, one month ago I pronounced my "No shorts for one month" and clearly, from the charts, this has been a tough month to short. So, that was a good call.
ReplyDeleteSorry for your loss, J. That's never fun. You did pretty well, all things considering.
Thanks, JKH. And good call on the no shorts. Should've listened. :)
DeleteIs VIX contango not rather weak at this point?
ReplyDeleteYes, but still in contango so it's XIV. TNA isn't a horrible choice since small caps outperform now through Jan.
Deletethanks
ReplyDeleteThanks. Sold TZA @ 15.02 for a loss of 6.7%.
ReplyDelete..which can be used as an offset against capital gains! What counts in the end is after-tax dollars.
DeleteJ, thx for the heads-up.. I gotta respect that 100% call... So, I'm cranking in stops and taking more profits on shorts, esp into weakness Monday/Tuesday, esp on a gap down open on the usual BS news crap. Don't see any big rush to get in big long here (yet) so I'll do what I usually do -- scale in/out. If we rally and I miss it, well, dat's the way the cookie crumbles.
ReplyDeleteOverall, i like this pullback, but if we could pull back more, it'd be more suitable risk for longs (for me). And now that we are no longer under the "no shorts" curse, I'm thinking to give this a smidge more downside, first... but, ultimately, i want to get long for the expected Santa Clause (SC) rally into January -- just seems a smidge early to start that yet w/out a washout, first, which I haven't seen.
Pattern wise, Sp500 daily did a failed upside breakout 12/11-13, so I wanna respect that failure.
I'd love to pick up things (and close most shorts) around the 12/5 lows (or lower).... better than here. I'll take some off at 1407, too, and crank stops more when/if we print that, too.
I dunno, I think we've still got a bit lower to go from here. I'm not seeing any candlestick reversal signals just yet. We'll see what the futures say Sunday night.
ReplyDeleteI have a question that someone on this board may be able to answer. For an intermediate period (say one to three months), is it more advantageous to trade a 2X ETF or to trade twice as much of a 1X ETF by going on margin? And, this question applies to going long or short.
ReplyDeleteWhat I mean by this question is when carrying costs and, especially, 2X short decay are taken into account, is it better to trade leveraged instruments or to use margin to trade non-leveraged instruments.
I use the 2x but only because it is less stressful for me.
Delete