Tuesday, December 11, 2012

JTS shorts....

JTS finally makes a move today moving to a strong short position. With CCI already short (as we already know... for the past 2 months it seems) the JT Comp moves to 100% short. I will move to 80% short on the close, but will save some in case we get a sharp pop on FOMC news. If that materializes tomorrow, I will add to my short position on the spike. More info on that tomorrow as it unfolds... Thanks! J

14 comments:

  1. I like systems with a steadfast pilot who sticks to a plan, and doesn't give a new signal every day. Trouble is, one pilot has half my portfolio in a glider seriously losing altitude (GLD). And the other pilot has put me in a rocketing nosedive (TZA). Hanging on for dear liquidity, glad I'm not over-trading, but the sky writing is increasingly clear: you're not flying, your falling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think what David is trying to say is: what needs to be fine tuned with the system to prevent such large draw downs as the one that is currently being experienced. Tks.

      Delete
  2. The problem with reducing drawdowns (with stop losses, for example), is that they almost always reduce returns over the long haul.

    The price you pay for a system that promises such stellar returns as J's is drawdowns. Any tinkering to reduce drawdowns smacks of curve-fitting, which is the death of any system.

    Basically, it all boils down to this: if you believe in J's system, stick with it. If you don't, go elsewhere. Fine tuning every time a system encounters head winds will, eventually, undermine it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very well said A. You should cut and paste that and save your fingers the typing time, next time newby hot money comes wandering thru, and you wish to make the most basic points about timing models.

      The extract of what you just "boiled" down is that all commitments to Timing Models are buy and hold positions. That is the entire point of a model, its historical tendency-crunching algorhythms are presumed to be better than our guesses. An allocation of X% of the total portfolio simply follows its dictates. Then a decade later there are columns called gains, losses, drawdowns; and equity curves, etc. And lo and behold, there are many entries in the losses column, along with mouth watering risk-adjusted total returns and Sharpe ratios.

      It's exactly like buying Berkshire stock, one is buying and holding THEM, Warren B. and cohorts, and they make decisions. With Timing Models one does exactly the same, except THEM is it.

      Also, btw I thought that was a good point, wittily made, in the prior day's comments. The cure for any 'doldrums' is to add volatily by leverage or choice of investment vehicle (higher beta, options, options on leverage on crack, etc.)

      Always enjoy reading your posts.

      Delete
  3. I'm also one who only trades when J's system is 100%. I would rather be on the safer side and make less than be all over the place and lose what I made last trade in a trade gone bad. I'm actually not buying any signal right now because there is too much crap up in the air and no system is going to predict the fiscal cliff stuff/news. That's just how I feel though...

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you get nervous about this drawdown, check what happened in summer 2011. Maybe you've allocated too big a portion of your portfolio to this system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that is why the question of how JT Comp did when both CCI and JTS were in agreement....it may give people an option for less drawdown for less reward.

      Delete
  5. Looking to add to my short on a gap up open today.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Remember I mentioned on my early on Saturday for TZA i said if it closes lower than 15.00 $ not a good sign now here is on the floor . Watch for a POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN and do not add any money foolishly because i see gap down below 13.93
    Soon I am going to take very large LONG position for Tza

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. there should be support around 13.75-13.80 as long as new market highs do not occur

      Delete
    2. Still feel that way after today's Engulfing candle, Alex?

      Delete
  7. J-Trader, RE: "...in case we get a sharp pop on FOMC news. If that materializes tomorrow, I will add to my short position on the spike..." Yes, your prediction is coming true. I do believe we're seeing the sharp pop, and you're buying more TZA, no doubt!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, everything has gone exactly as planned.

      Delete