Hold signal + Unhealthy + July Trades

With the dip below the 7/18 swing lows, the system flips to unhealthy mode today.  In a nutshell this means that buy signals will be harder to come by, and sell & short signals will come more frequently.

Either way today's signal is a "hold".  That will change only if something extraordinary happens this afternoon.

I'm not here to guess - but if I was... I would say Monday will be another red day followed by a multi-day rally beginning Tuesday.  Let's see if I'm right... Have a good weekend all.

Monthly archiving of signals...

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Date	Signal	TNA
Jun 24	Buy	73.55
Jul 1	Short	85.43
Jul 5	Hold
Jul 6	Cover	87.19
Jul 7	Short	91.02
Jul 8	Hold
Jul 11	Hold
Jul 12	Cover	82.32
Jul 13	Hold
Jul 14	Buy	80.45
Jul 15	Hold
Jul 18	Buy	78.20
Jul 19	Hold
Jul 20	Hold
Jul 21	Hold
Jul 22	Hold
Jul 25	Hold
Jul 26	Buy
Jul 27	Hold
Jul 28	Hold
Jul 29	Hold

Hold confirmed.

Well, we had a decent rally that failed, setting up what looks like an inverted hammer. Implications are supposedly bullish but we'll see. I'm getting a hold signal, so I'll continue to hold onto my long positions. Tomorrow could be another bad day unless we get some good news. See ya tomorrow!

Hold confirmed.

A discouraging day to say the least. I will continue to hold my long positions, which may sound a bit foolish. And it probably is....

Buy Signal #3 (Strong)

A relatively rare set-up is occurring today with the system giving a 3rd buy signal. While the system is already "all-in", admittedly I am not as I took some profits late last week. Holding 100% TNA over a weekend is a bit too much risk for me to stomach. I did buy some back yesterday on the open at 82.50. I will load up with more on the close today.

This is a strong buy signal, which by my definition simply means both healthy and unhealthy modes are sporting buy signals. Historical results associated with "strong buys" are impressive. I've posted the stats several times in the recent past...most recently on July 14.

As far as the system goes, it may as well be a hold signal. My system was all in at TNA 79.32 and profits have mostly evaporated since it neglected to dish up a sell signal last week.

Hold confirmed.

Hold confirmed.

3:48pm: Hold signal confirmed. 100% long TNA.

12:50pm: There will be no short signal today, but we could get a sell signal if we close near the daily high. I am not expecting that, however. I think we'll pull back a bit off the daily high, in true range day fashion and finish with a doji ultimately leading to a hold signal. Check back later though b/c it's about a 50/50 chance.

Hold confirmed

3:45pm: Hold signal confirmed.

1:20pm: No chance of a sell signal anymore. Not that I can see. Holding long and strong!

12:10pm: Not such a huge move anymore, at least not for TNA. Opening the door for a possible sell signal...

10:39am: I doubt we'll see a sell signal today...so higher we'll go?!? I love days like today - when we're on the right side of a huge move.

Hold confirmed

A relatively boring day. Consolidation before another move up? Perhaps... Still holding 100% long. Happy hump day!

Hold confirmed.

3:52pm:  Hold confirmed. The system expects more upside...

1:59pm: Well, it took some guts to go "all in" yesterday afternoon but it is paying off nicely! For today, unless something screwy happens this afternoon we are looking at a solid "hold" signal.  I will update if anything changes. There is a slight chance of a sell signal so check back later...

Buy #2 confirmed.

System will be 100% long TNA, averaged in at 79.32.

Hold

Hold confirmed. Have a good weekend.

Buy #1 confirmed.

3:48pm: Buy signal confirmed.  Initiating 50% long position in TNA.  50% remains in cash.

12:29pm: With a couple hours left to go, I'm getting a strong buy signal.  The last strong buy signal was generated June 24th.  Once again, here are the statistical results associated with strong buys. 

1)  40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days.
2) 80% chance of a higher close within 3 days.
3) 95% chance of a higher close within 2 weeks.

These stats have not been updated to reflect June 24 results, so %'s should actually be a bit higher now.

I will update later with the official signal.

Hold confirmed.

4: 03pm: Missed a buy signal.  2 days in a row, missed by pennies....

3:54pm:  Buy if SPY closes at or below 131.80.

3:48pm: This afternoon selling has the system chewing on a possible buy signal.  Will update in a few mins...

12:57pm: No buy or short signals in sight today...  And with today being a big up day with no short signal, odds favor more upside in the days that follow.  I will remain parked in cash though.

Cover confirmed

4:10pm: With the cover signal, the system moves to the sidelines.  Performance this month has been stellar - up nearly 12%.   The yearly % gain has just exceeded 43% with this latest short trade. 

3:41pm: Had some technical issues yesterday and was lucky to get the signal out.  Everything is running smoothly today and we have a buy signal if SPY finishes at or above 131.83.   Anything below and we have a cover signal.  So, either way the short position will be closed.  All that is uncertain right now is if a 50% long position will be opened.  Watch SPY.

hold confirmed...

Hold confirmed

3:47pm: Hold signal is confirmed. Holding 50% short position over the weekend. 

3:27pm: Another close one today!  It's either gonna be a hold or cover signal. No other options at this point.  Could come down to the last couple minutes, so be ready to buy to cover if you're following along.

Short confirmed.

3:55pm: Short is confirmed.

Heads up - the system is trying to go short again.  At least we were able to sidestep the launch from the jobs report this morning.

Cover confirmed.

4pm: The system moves to the sideline after taking about a 1% loss on the short position. There is too much uncertainty to be long or short right now. If I had to guess, I say we go higher from here though.

The short position will be closed if SPY finishes flat or higher today, even if it's only by 0.01.  If SPY finishes in the red, we'll maintain the 50% short position.  Right now it's too close to call, so we'll have to see what happens.  Yesterday and today should've been the best days for a quick pullback to occur.  Since it never really happened, I suspect we'll go higher this week.  The bears only hope is if SPY finishes down today.

Twitter feed...

With the addition of twitter to my site, you'll notice some changes.  The most obvious is the link to follow me on twitter. The other change is the feed right below it.  That will now be the location where my latest signal will be posted. This is to make life easier on me so I'm not having to update 2 different things right before the market closes... which is already crunch time.  I will still post commentary at some point during the day, but it may not always be before the close. 

Hold

3:53pm: Hold confirmed.  Twitter feed should be available sometime this week...

2:37pm:  FYI, looks like we'll get a hold signal today. I'll update later.

Monthly wrap-up

June kicked off with a short signal on the first of the month, which I remember at the time just didn't feel like the right trade. One thing I have learned though is that the best trades usually are the ones that are the most uncomfortable.  It was followed the next day by a buy signal which actually felt good.  We know how that trade turned out.  About the only positive thing I can say about it was that half my money was locked up in cash as the market sank.  The market fell enough by Jun 6 to flip the status to unhealthy. On the next pop, the system fled to safety on Jun 14.  That didn't last long as another buy signal was generated the next day.  A few days later we were out with another decent profit.  A profitable short signal was generated on the 21st.  The market was beginning to show signs of life that week as it bottomed and a strong buy signal was generated on the 24th.  I gave it a 40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days, and sure enough TNA went up 16% in 5 days.  Not bad! Of course, I only captured half of that since I was only 50% long.

For the month, June was up a modest 2.89%.  However, July is already up 8.08%(!) since we closed the long trade on the 1st.  I strive for 5% a month so we are off to a good start and making up nicely for a sub-par June.  For the year, we are up nearly 40%!  (+39.81% to be exact.)  I'm not sure how long the system can maintain this kind of exceptional performance, but I'm sure enjoying the ride.  Since we got a short signal, I'm guessing we'll see a small/quick pullback before the market heads higher.  It doesn't matter what I think though...I tend not to argue with something that is up 40% in 6 months. :)  Have a great 4th weekend. See ya back here on Tuesday.

50% Short (+ June Trades)

11pm: For those following my system (and paying attention :) longs should've been sold and a 50% short position should've been opened.   I'll try to make a short weekend post along with updating system stats and such. Market is closed Monday so I'll see ya here Tuesday! 

3pm update: A $VIX close of 15.70 or higher generates a SHORT signal.  Otherwise, a hold signal is confirmed.   We're driving back home today so this is my last update until the weekend.  Watch the VIX.  Have a good one.

1:56pm: Another hold signal is on tap today.  This has been a great run.  I suppose my only gripe would be that I am 50% cash.

I'll look into getting a twitter account which would allow me to send out my signals live to anyone interested.  Thanks for the suggestion.

 If we see significant weakness before the close today, we could flip to a sell signal.  If we don't see weakness, no need to check back here... it will be a hold signal.

For archiving purposes...

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Date	Signal	TNA
May 31	Short	88.90
Jun 1	Buy	80.52
Jun 2	Hold
Jun 3	Hold
Jun 6	Hold
Jun 7	Hold
Jun 8	Hold
Jun 9	Hold
Jun 10	Hold
Jun 13	Hold
Jun 14	Sell	72.43
Jun 15	Buy	68.65
Jun 16	Hold
Jun 17	Hold
Jun 20	Sell	71.06
Jun 21	Short	75.75
Jun 22	Hold
Jun 23	Hold
Jun 24	Buy	73.55
Jun 27	Hold
Jun 28	Hold
Jun 29	Hold
Jun 30	Hold