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no problem, thanks. holding my shorts and TZA
Anyone considering a volatility trade or just straight TZA?
J I opened just now TZA position @33.58 and still holding my SDS position from 24th April .My long term system will close 66% of my position today @ closing but My long term system won,t short before market gets unhealthy mode
Alex, your long term system sounds a little ambivalent, or, at the least, confused. Do you mean that your intermediate term system will close part of its position but your long term system won't?Assuming that's what you mean, could you tell us what constitutes an unhealthy market mode?
My long term system has been long for a while for soxl so it will close my 66 % of my long position . My short term system is separate from my long term system but SDS position is underwater so i added tza agains sds position For unhealthy market my system uses weekly charts to determine if the market healthy or unhealthy I hope that helps By the way I have great respect for J and his system he is one of the good trader that i know so far good luck
That's my daughter again. I (Alex, aka Algyros) posted the above comment.
I think that a rising out of control market with crappy GDPnumbers constitues an unhealthy market
I was looking for something more objective, with backtested data. On a side note, pb, if you look at a chart of SPY since Oct. 2011 and don't call that healthy, then we understand health in very different ways. For my own trading, I try not to think too much and just look at the charts. If the market is unhealthy, the charts will show it. In the meantime, you will continue to make money.
So your definition of health only refers to price action of the market and not fundamentals?
That's right, but not because fundamentals don't matter. However, not all fundamentals matter, and the ones that do don't always matter, or matter in the way we think they should. The ones that do matter will get reflected in the charts, so I think that looking at charts is the safest way to keep from overthinking. For example, as I suggested in my previous post, a good fundamental argument could have been made for a weak market for the last two years. If one had acted on such fundamentals and been short the market all this time, one's account would be reduced to almost nothing.Among the reasons I like J's system is that it's objective and specific (hence reproducible and quantifiable). I know far too many people who've lost tons of money these last couple of years because they trusted the permabears. Far better to wait for J's signals.
Not so sure that "fundamental analysis" says market should have gone down. Coming out of extreme recession/with a very accomodatove fed and eventually accomodative central bankers world wide would "fundamentally" say certain assets should go higher!
I actually agree (i.e., the "fundamental argument" to which I referred is not one that I would make). But tell that to the people who think that Obama is in cahoots with El Qaeda and Soros to take over the world. Seriously, my point is simply that fundamentals get reflected in price.
If that were the case, then why are stocks that are missing earnings going up?
RMI Why individual stocks missing and going up is too general to answer why. Depends on the perception of the miss as well as the amount. Certainly has to do with whatever the perception of future earnings and what they will be worth to the equity holder.
"Certain assets should go higher" is equally general.Not sure any system should be shorting based on that logic, so I guess we should all be buying stocks like the pundits say... at least until it stops going up and we end up underwater on everything and have to wait 5 years to get our money back...Been there done thatdon't want to do it againMust admit, being short in the market the last year has been a fools errand...Yes, a little frustrated.
There is currently a massive disconnect with current economic data and the market. The market is currently driven by the Central Bankers injecting Billions of Dollars into the Market just to keep it up.That is not a healthy market - if they ever cut back or stop QE this Market will nose dive. A healthy market would not need QE.
That's a little bit like saying that the horse you're betting on has been doped. It may be true, but that doesn't mean you can't make money betting on him, and, conversely, it doesn't mean that you can't lose money not betting on him.
You're on the same page, but there's a slight problem of definition. pb's definition of "healthy" is based on fundamentals, whereas Algyros' uses the same term referring to actual market performance regardless of the underlying fundamentals.