Friday, June 8, 2012

CCI goes short.

First, the Jtrader system flips to healthy mode and generates a hold signal keeping it 100% cash. The CCI sees this as a shortable bounce. Caution is warranted as the recent low has all the makings of an intermediate term bottom.

CCI stats were posted back to late 2010 alongside the JTS stats. Results in 2011 were stupid and not realistic. While I have faith in the system, I would never expect it to perform that well ever again. Annual results got carried away due to leverage and compounding. It is what it is...

Have a good weekend.

6 comments:

  1. JT - Thanks for this super early posting.

    When you write that "..Caution is warranted as the recent low has all the makings of an intermediate term bottom..."

    --this alarms me, you saying this, because this is what I think, and the market usually does something different than what I think. This remark is an "interpretative remark" (as opposed to a system signal)... so could you please share with us the specifics of what is making you interpret it thusly..?

    Again, I'm seeing it similarly.. but the general sentiment indicators are mixed. Can you elaborate on what markings are standing out to you?

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    1. No prob! I took a partial position in TZA just prior to the close. I'm hoping I'm wrong about the bullish call but we are rallying off a 100 day low and sentiment was was extremely bearish a week ago. We bounced off the 200 day MA for the first time in 5 months. Also, there is a strong positive divergence in Institutional accumulation/distribution, a bull flag on the 15 minute chart targeting ~1376 and a possible inverse H&S which if broken to the upside may target 1400+. News out of Spain appears bullish. I feel like going short as I did on Friday is not going to work out. Again though I hope I'm wrong. I've been adhering to the CCI trades recently and they have paid off, but I know that when the CCI is wrong it can be painfully wrong. It seems like this could be one of those times.

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  2. J, I hear ya, and see that, too (i.e., your call about the intermediate term bottom). That said, I don't like the last-engulfing candle on DIA daily, today, so I peeled off a few more longs in A/H. Not as good of a price as Thursday's open, but, just locking in more profits and reducing long exposure. If I see a pullback and signs to start rebuilding again, I will.
    My call from 5/17 about my not shorting for 3 weeks is coming to an end here, too - Every dip was aggressively bought since then. So, not so bad. Curious to see what your next signal is.
    Have a great weekend.

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    1. JKH, your comments and insights posted here are much appreciated. Please keep them coming...

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    2. Thx, J.

      With the expected gap up open tomorrow (at least +165 YM, but it was +242 earlier), I'll be peeling off more longs at the open. Hoping for a HUUUGE gap up open.

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  3. Here's a very interesting article about using backtesting to develop trading systems: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/how_to/articles/Exploring-the-Biases-in-Backtesting-Forex-Strategi-80442.cfm

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