3:50pm ET: Short signal confirmed. It is a strong short signal as long as SPY remains below 129.63 today. A close above 129.63 makes it a relatively weaker signal, but a 50% short signal nonetheless.
As I mentioned before, a green SPY close tomorrow (incidentally, an FOMC day which is seasonally bullish) puts the short signal in doubt as the system will flip back to healthy status. Good evening.
10:32am ET:
It's quite apparent today that yesterday's sell signal was a bummer, but on the bright side we are not short. That will change today - most likely. I am getting a short signal this morning which will probably remain valid into the close. Since today appears to be a true trend day, I would expect the day to slowly melt up (with a few small dips here and there to take out some stops) finishing near the high of the day. Thus, it would be unwise to try to short this action until ~4pm.
Another important thing to note is that if SPY finishes green today and tomorrow, the market status will flip back to healthy. It will then remain healthy until either the 6/16 low of 1258 is breached or until we make a sustained run to the upside and undergo another topping process. I will detail my healthy and unhealthy indicators in a post sometime this week.
"Thus, it would be unwise to try to short this action until ~4pm."
ReplyDeleteToo late... :( OBTW, not on your signal, on others... :)
Is this market so out of whack that it is messing with your signals (don't worry, others were off too)?
ReplyDeleteI am so down for the year and have a lot of making up to do... I can't afford to sit out the market every time it gets screwy...
RMI,
ReplyDeleteFrom what I can see, it's no more screwy than any other time this year. Give this short trade some time to marinate. I am fairly confident it will be a winner. What I really want to see today is SPY finish red. This afternoon could be volatile, hopefully more down than up! :)