Monday, June 6, 2011

Market turns Unhealthy

3:20pm:  Unlike 2 hours ago, the Nasdaq and VIX are now confirming the unhealthy market status. I would expect a small 1 or 2 day bounce before the next wave of selling. That is just a guess though.  Today's confirmed signal is a hold.

1:02pm: With the SPX dipping below 1294.70 this morning, the system officially flips to unhealthy mode. This essentially loosens the requirement for sell/short signals and makes buy signals far more scarce.  However, something strange is going on.  The flip to unhealthy status is not being confirmed by the VIX right now.  This could change if the VIX closes up on the day.  I can't recall the last time such a large dip in the indices coincided with such an uninspiring move in the VIX.  Additionally, the Nasdaq is not supporting the unhealthy flip either.

At any rate, it looks like we'll get a hold signal today. I fully expect the system to sell the next bounce.  If the next bounce is exceptionally strong, it will flip the status quickly back to healthy.  If not, we might expect more downside.

I will update later today with the official signal.

1 comment:

  1. Got an overnight bounce in the s&p futures. Should open with a gap up. TNA premarket up a $1+ if it holds.