Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Short confirmed

3:50pm ET:  Short signal confirmed.  It is a strong short signal as long as SPY remains below 129.63 today.  A close above 129.63 makes it a relatively weaker signal, but a 50% short signal nonetheless. 

As I mentioned before, a green SPY close tomorrow (incidentally, an FOMC day which is seasonally bullish) puts the short signal in doubt as the system will flip back to healthy status. Good evening.

 10:32am ET:
It's quite apparent today that yesterday's sell signal was a bummer, but on the bright side we are not short.  That will change today - most likely.  I am getting a short signal this morning which will probably remain valid into the close.  Since today appears to be a true trend day, I would expect the day to slowly melt up (with a few small dips here and there to take out some stops) finishing near the high of the day.  Thus, it would be unwise to try to short this action until ~4pm.

Another important thing to note is that if SPY finishes green today and tomorrow, the market status will flip back to healthy. It will then remain healthy until either the 6/16 low of 1258 is breached or until we make a sustained run to the upside and undergo another topping process.  I will detail my healthy and unhealthy indicators in a post sometime this week.


  1. "Thus, it would be unwise to try to short this action until ~4pm."

    Too late... :( OBTW, not on your signal, on others... :)

  2. Is this market so out of whack that it is messing with your signals (don't worry, others were off too)?

    I am so down for the year and have a lot of making up to do... I can't afford to sit out the market every time it gets screwy...

  3. RMI,

    From what I can see, it's no more screwy than any other time this year. Give this short trade some time to marinate. I am fairly confident it will be a winner. What I really want to see today is SPY finish red. This afternoon could be volatile, hopefully more down than up! :)