Selling UVXY

Just sold the turd known as UVXY today at 47 .   Gave it a few extra days which paid off some, but still taking a loss is never fun. Thanks!   Until next time....

J

Long UVXY

Been super busy around here lately, pardon the absence.  Missed the Buy VXX signal a few days ago but that's worked in our favor as UVXY is now lower than the trigger price.  I just purchased a decent sized lot of UVXY at 52.40.   I'm setting a limit sell order for 55.00 targeting a ~5% gain.  I'll give it 5 days to get there otherwise I'll sell it next Tues 5/13 regardless.  Thanks and good luck with your trading!
-J

NUGT buy signal

GDX fired a buy signal yesterday at the close and I missed it.  System would've bought NUGT yesterday, but it gapped up today and already hit it's 5% target.   System 1, J-Trader 0

Will wait to see what happens next.  If GDX continues down, I will buy some.  Thanks!
J

Long UVXY

VXX55 system is buying UVXY on the close today.   5% gain would be in the 64 range, (current price @ ~61) which seems like a reasonably achievable target considering it was over 67 just yesterday.   Will load up the boat on the close and will buy more if it gaps down next week. 

Thanks and good luck to all - whatever you decide.
J

Short UVXY

First signal of year, finally!  VXX55 system is shorting UVXY on the close.  Target is a 5% drop.   Thx.

JT Composite closed

The JT Composite has exited its short position, rounding out the year with a nice winner.   This will be the last update for that system.   I still may mention it once in awhile though. 

If you're interested, GDX StochRSI is pegged at 100 2 days in a row now.   If DUST is down again tomorrow, a buy signal will be triggered.  I'll update tomorrow if indeed that is the case. 

Thanks all!
J

VIX55 / GDX55

Greetings all,

Let me first explain why this has become such a sorry excuse for a webpage the last several months.  The year 2013 was one of great stress and overall busyness for me and my family.  I'll spare the details but I feel like I've barely been able to keep my head above water, let alone spend much time on here keeping things fresh.

Additionally, the JTS and CCI are sometimes difficult and tedious to track on a daily basis.  Thus, if I wanted to keep this going any longer something simpler would have to suffice.  I was messing around one day with the Stochastic RSI tool trying to capitalize on the large swings of DUST/NUGT.  It's not uncommon for them to move 10% a day.  Trying to hit the pivot is the tricky part though, obviously.  If you miss, you can get dinged hard and fast.  To keep things simple, and simple is what I need, I've honed in on entering a trade when the StochRSI has been pegged below 5 or above 95 for 3 straight days.  I've looked at many exit strategies such as simply selling after 5 days or waiting for StochRSI to reverse to a given level, but what I found worked best was holding for a 5% profit, which almost always occurred within 5 days.  Holding longer opens one up to more risk than I feel is acceptable considering how these 3x miners can move!

The system can obviously be made more complex incorporating other indicators such as CCI.  One particular strategy that works well is buying after only 1 or 2 consecutive 5 or 95 days (rather than 3) if the CCI has been respectively strong or weak in the 2 weeks leading up the signal triggering.   It's the old adage "buy the dip".   When things have just been meandering around though, buying too early can kill you which is why 3 days in general is a good number.  Further, if DUST/NUGT has been weak for 10 days or so and you aren't invested, you will most likely could make way more than 5%.   But for my purposes, to keep things simple I'm aiming for 5%.  If it fails to hit, I'll sell on the close on Day 5.   Trades are minimal - only about 1 per month.  But since this works equally as well for UVXY, we are up to about 2 trades per month on average.   Win rates are very good.  Average losses for trades that don't hit the magic 5% mark are usually manageable. I'll discuss this and more at a later date- this introductory email is already a bit too long.  Thanks and God bless! Happy new year! 

JT Comp holding short... Last one!

Note: This will be the last daily email you will receive. Beginning in 2014, I will only be sending an email alert/tweet when either the VIX55 or GDX55 systems are entering a trade. I realize some of you may not care to receive these emails any longer, so please email me at jtrader21 at gmail.com and I will remove you from the distribution list. 
 
 I will go into more detail on the new systems tomorrow.  I will also send a final email/tweet when the JT Composite exits it's current short position.

Again, for those of you not interested in trading volatility or gold miners, just let me know.   Thanks!

Hold

UVXY target hit so I'm back to cash. No new signals today. Jt comp remains short. Thx.

Hold

Nothing new today.  JTS and CCI remain short.  The VXX-55 system is still long UVXY from 15.88.... will hold for 4 more days or until hitting 16.67.  Thanks!

100% Short TNA

Systems are in agreement again today - about midway thru the Santa rally. The JT Composite now moves to 100% short TNA, or long TZA if you wish. Additionally, the VXX system kicked off a buy signal (which in 2014 will officially be tracked here in favor of the JT Composite). I'm still developing a name, but since its goal is to earn 5% in 5 days, I'm considering going with "5-in-5" or "VIX 55". To get the 5%, it requires the use of the 2x UVXY (long and short) ETF rather than 1x VXX or XIV. Also as I've stated before, the system works with gold miners (GDX) so there will be a "GDX 55" system as well which will officially trade DUST/NUGT. The 55 system would probably work on plain GLD when trading UGLD and DGLD but I'm not too interested in those.

Again, more details on the "5-5" systems are forthcoming, but for now I will open a 50% position in UVXY at 15.88. Target (limit sell) price will be set for 16.67. I will scale into the position and if it goes lower, I will adjust the target sell price to 5% above my average buy-in.  Chances are good it could go lower considering the Santa rally lasts thru Jan 2.

Thx!

Hold

JT Comp is 50% short but I'm sitting in cash for now. No new trades. Thanks!

No changes

Nothing new to report. JTS remains short, CCI is sidelined. VXX/GDX systems are sidelined. I'm sidelined. See ya tomorrow!

50% short TNA

CCI is moving back to cash, but JTS is opening a short position in TNA today. My UVXY trade tagged 19.95 this morning and covered. I was happy at the time b/c shortly after, it was back to 21. Now look at it... :-/ Oh well, I'll take the 5%. I will remain in cash. I will wait for either a 100% JTComp signal or a GDX/VXX signal before getting back in the market. Thanks!

Hold XIV

No changes today. Systems remain long XIV. The new VIX system is shorting UVXY today. Looking for 5% profit within 5 days on this trade. Will discuss this more later...but I'll be grabbing UVXY shorts on the close. Thx!

Hold XIV

Nothing new today. Systems maintain their long XIV positions. No new trades with experimental systems to report. Have a great weekend!

Hold XIV

No changes today. Both systems remain long, so I'll continue to hold XIV. No new GDX/VXX trades, although VXX is getting very close to a short signal. If VXX is up again tomorrow, most likely we'll be getting a short UVXY scenario looking for a quick 5% gain. See ya then!

100% long XIV

JT Composite flips to 100% long XIV on today's close as both systems are in agreement again. Buying some XIV here in AH. Thx!

100% cash

JTS remains long but CCI flips back to short. Opposing signals generate a neutral JT Composite stance. I'm sidelined and will remain that way. No new GDX/VXX trades today. Thx!

Hold longs.

Both systems remain long. My uvxy short covered on the open so I'm in cash. No new vxx/gdx trades today. Thx!