Monday, January 27, 2014

Short UVXY

First signal of year, finally!  VXX55 system is shorting UVXY on the close.  Target is a 5% drop.   Thx.

25 comments:

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    1. Oh, also, your shorting UVXY vice buying XIV because... ??? :)

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    2. Thanks, RMI. Shorting UVXY simply b/c it's 2x VIX. If I were longing XIV, I would be looking only for a 2.5% move.

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  2. Tx, J... joined you... was able to get some nice fills in A/H...

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  3. That was quick. I'm out already w/ the 5% gain.

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  4. Kudos, J. I'm sitting longer, short on this PoS... let's see how far she drops over the next few days....

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  5. Scaled in more, higher, today. Nice move in A/H.

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  6. J, are you using a trailing stop in case UVXY were to go up instead of down? If so, where are you setting it at? Thanks.

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  7. Scale-in ... no stop. My usual play. I will post when I exit. Always do.

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  8. No stop here either. Will explicitly sell after 5 days if I can't make my 5% profit.

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  9. Gotcha! Looking forward to the next signal.

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  10. I just keep on shortin', coverin' lower bases on dips, then re-shorting higher.... my highest basis for this round is now $88/share. Will keep working' it until it stops going up. This round could go as high as $110/share, based upon historical mkt data... so, this strategy is not for the thinly funded.

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  11. Looking back further than what UVXY has been around (10/2011), if we have a true major market oh-shit, like the flash-crash of 8-9/2011 or 5/2010 or 2008-style crash, then UVXY will go up to about $600/share. And I'll keep shorting it. So,again, not for the faint of heart.

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  12. Thanks all, possible short UVXY signal today if it finishes strong (market weak).

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  13. I put on another set... very hard to get shares to short, though... Looked at three brokerages.... even mighty "full-service deep-pockets" UBS (who can usually get me anything I want to short), didn't have any. I managed to find some at IB. Expecting mkt to stay in "stun" mode until Friday's Jobs #.... fwiw..

    If we close below Monday's lows, that would set up the opportunity for this thing to explode higher. Glad yer w/me on this, J, but be sure to spread your cost-averages higher up here.

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  14. JKH, did you manage to cover your UVXY???? It dropped ~20% from yesterday's close.

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  15. Nice move today... They've jumped the gun on the Jobs number.... but the drop is not done yet. still short from $100. Covered a lower basis batch for B/E+1. Keeping the highest basis. Will keep playing this game in perpetuity.

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  16. FWIW natural gas seems to be negatively correlated to the mkt of late..
    http://investorplace.com/2014/02/natural-gas-stock-market/#.UvQPNPldVsM
    The six worst days for the market thus far in 2014 have all occurred on days when UNG climbed. Also GAZ, BOIL, UGAZ.

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    1. Glad I am short NG as I believe we will see more upside in the market tomorrow.

      GLTA

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  17. That was more like it. near 30% profit in 2 days... time to click-in some profits... covered some at the close, but keeping the majority for longer, still. She was $100 two days ago, and will probably be $25 in a year, if not lower. And if she ever gets back over $100 again, I'll start working a new basis higher. Simple enough.

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    1. So you are still in DGAZ for a longer play? I sold out after making 17% in a week (obviously got in higher than you). I think we might get another pop to 5.2 or higher on NG next week and I will try to buy in sub-3 if I can... then I want to take this for a longer ride.

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    2. Locked in more profits today... about 33% profit.. Amazing that you can get that much profit in just ~4 days action.

      Phenomenal year for trading so far... this year just keeps getting better and better and better...

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  18. Going long UVXY tomorrow (2/14) if VXX closes down again. A V-day present?.

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  19. Now this I gotta see work... maybe when you take profits, I'll re-short....

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