Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Hold signals.

Nothing new today... All systems remain short. I am patiently waiting for a pullback, which could come as late as next week?!?!?   We'll see...take it easy.

Apr signals
Date JT Composite... XIV/TNAJ-TraderCCI
Mar 26/28 50% Short TNA23.48/44.45Cash Short
Apr 1 50% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 2 50% Short TNAHold Hold
Apr 3 100% Cash 23.07/40.08LongHold
Apr 4 50% Long XIV 23.43/41.07HoldCover
Apr 5 100% Long XIV23.37/40.80HoldLong
Apr 8 50% Short TNA24.00/41.89ShortHold
Apr 9 100% Short TNA24.35/41.51HoldShort
Apr 10 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 11 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 12 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 15 100% Cash 22.45/38.54HoldLong
Apr 16 100% Short TNA23.46/40.49HoldShort
Apr 17 100% Cash20.86/38.43HoldLong
Apr 18 100% CashHoldHold
Apr 19 100% CashHoldHold
Apr 22 50% Short TNA21.78/39.36HoldSell
Apr 23 100% Short TNA22.88/41.21HoldShort
Apr 24 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 25 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 26 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 29 100% Short TNAHoldHold
Apr 30 100% Short TNAHoldHold

Monday, April 29, 2013


All systems remain 100% short.  I will increase my TZA position to 90% today.  I think the risk/reward for a short trade here is favorable.  Thanks!

Friday, April 26, 2013

Holding shorts.

The afternoon strength was a little frustrating but I guess not very surprising.  Seems whenever I'm short and the market appears to be heading south during the morning hours, it pauses and then reverses during the 2nd half of the day.  Oh well.  I'll continue to hold my 75% TZA position into next week and we'll see what Monday brings. All systems remain short.  Enjoy the weekend all.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Hold shorts.

Nothing has changed today with the systems.  All remain short.  Patience is required here.  I will remain 75% long TZA and 25% cash.  Eventually I will use the rest of my capital if we keep going up, but probably not until sometime next week.  Thanks!

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Healthy? Holding shorts...

I'm not sure what will happen in the last 15 minutes, but if SPY closes positive today, it flips the JTS back to healthy mode and by rule stops out half of the short position.  That rule was developed prior to the existence of the CCI and JT Composite.  I don't do stops anymore (there are none built into the JT Comp) but if someone was strictly following the JTS, the stop may be triggered on the close today.  Just FYI. 

Otherwise, all systems will remain short.  I will continue to hold my TZA.  Will not add any additional shares today.  Thanks!

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

100% Short TNA

CCI moves to a short signal. With JTS also short, the JT Composite moves to 100% short TNA. I will take a 75% position in TZA. Thanks!

Monday, April 22, 2013

50% Short TNA

The JTS will remain short.  The CCI, which as been long for a few days, is selling its long position and heading to cash.  That puts the JT Composite into a 50% short position.  I will continue to wait for a 100% signal before putting money to work. 

My gut feeling is that we are going lower, much lower.  However, my feelings are often wrong, which means we are going gradually higher this week to convince my gut that it's wrong.   It's at that point the market will makes it's move to the downside.  I will not be fooled - I'll be ready. 

Friday, April 19, 2013

Hold signals.

Nothing new today. The JTS remains short, the CCI long, and the JT Comp sidelined in cash.  Enjoy the weekend!  See ya,

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Unhealthy...and still 100% Cash

The JTS was on its way to generating a buy signal today which would've pushed the JT Comp all-in XIV.   But, because the SPY swing low of 4/5/13 was broken today, it now opens up the possibility of a significant decline in the short term.  I'm not sure what will happen, but going forward I'd be very cautious on the long side, at least until the model flips back to healthy mode.  Because the underlying market health has flipped to unhealthy today, the JTS will remain short...

The CCI (which is still leaning bullish intermediate term) will remain long.   The conflicting systems will keep me and the JT Composite on the sidelines.


Wednesday, April 17, 2013

100% Cash again...

CCI gives a buy signal today, but JTS remains short.  This neutral setup sends the JT Comp back to cash.  I'm exiting my TZA as well.  Thanks all!

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

100% Short TNA

The CCI is flipping back to short.  The JTS remains short which moves the JT Composite back to a 100% short TNA position.  I will pick up a small amount of TZA position on the close.  Feels like there may be a bit more upside left so will keep some cash in reserves.  Thanks!

Monday, April 15, 2013

Wow...100% Cash!

JTS remains short but the CCI is going long today.  This moves the JT Composite to a 100% cash position.  Fine by me, I'm headed there as well after a superb day.   Welcome back volatility....where've ya been?

Thanks and congrats to all shorts!


Friday, April 12, 2013


No changes today, all models remain short.  I will do that same.  Thanks and enjoy the weekend.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Hold shorts.

Nothing new today. All systems remain short.  I will maintain a 90% TZA position.  See ya tomorrow.  Thx.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Hold shorts.

All systems remain short. I'm adding to my short position today. Going 90% TZA on the close.  Best of luck all.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

100% Short TNA

CCI is flipping to short to join the JTS. JT Comp moves to 100% short. I will be taking a 75% position in TZA, leaving some in cash just in case I'm early...

Thanks all!

Monday, April 8, 2013

50% Short TNA

Both systems are exiting their long position today. The JTS is opening a short position but the CCI is moving to cash. This combo shifts the JT Composite to 50% short TNA. I will sell my small XIV position and head back to cash for now. Further strength tomorrow or Wed could easily flip the CCI (and thus the JT Comp) to 100% short. We'll see. Take it easy!

Friday, April 5, 2013

100% Long XIV

Jt composite moves to 100% long xiv. The cci goes long today to match the jts. Ill take a small position for now. Thx and have a great weekend.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

50% Long XIV

JTS remains long, and the CCI is covering its short position today and moving to cash. This puts the JT Comp into a half long position. I'm generally not following partial positions this year, so I'll just hang out in cash 1 more day. Any downside at all tomorrow should flip the CCI long, in which case the JT Comp will likely move to 100% long and I'll put some capital at risk. Until then, I'll remain a spectator. Thanks!

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

100% Cash

Pardon the confusion on my part, the JT Comp which officially was at 50% short TNA the past few days is now moving back to 100% cash. The JTS is generating a long XIV signal today but the CCI system remains short TNA. Now the signals are opposing each other once again, which moves the JT Comp to all cash. I will remain sidelined as well. The JTS long signal has a tight half stop at SPY 153.59. Thanks!

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Hold signals

Nothing new. Systems continue to oppose each other. I will remain in cash. Thx.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Holding 100% Cash.

JTS remains long and CCI remains short. JT Comp and I remain 100% cash for now. Waiting patiently... Hope you all had a fine Easter weekend. See you tomorrow.