Thursday, August 15, 2013
Unhealthy...JTS stays short.
Looked like JTS would've finally gone long today, but the market health qualifier flipped to unhealthy today (warning of a possible bigger selloff)... and the unhealthy signal today says to hold the short position. So with the JTS remaining short and the CCI long, the JT Composite will remain in cash. I will hold my partial short.
I will mention that SPY's CCI value is very stretched to the downside. In the past, when it's been this stretched, the market had 1 or 2 more down days and then skyrocketed to the upside. Just FYI.
See you tomorrow, thanks!
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Thanks. J.
ReplyDeleteThanks J!
ReplyDeleteJust curious: how much of your portfolio would you invest for a guaranteed return of 1/2 percent per month? compounded monthly, that's more than 6% per year.
ReplyDeleteThat was a fast flush once 1680 cratered right at the open.... vis-a-vis my note from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSo we got a nice 2-day down move. Glad I added 2 days ago and let some ride for this. I'm now flat all profitable short positions as of the close. Couldda done better just after the close, but not fussy about winning ~33 pts on ES in 2 days. I'm playing for a bounce day here, like your CCI signal calls for, J... Expect a bounce off that 50dma on SPX... Then I'll look to re-join ya on the short side w/new positions, J.
As usual... never over-leverage... scale in/out of every trade... right Al?
Omniscience must be a terrible burden.
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ReplyDeleteBlack friday coming tomorrow? Sputtering recovery of economy weighed down by big debt and recent lackluster numbers? I sold all my positions the last 2 days, thinking the gold may be the best bet..
ReplyDeleteWish have waited, huge loss after the system went short 2 months ago, now the 100% signal covered right at the top...
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting the ole "seller's remorse" to hit today. And, if not today, then very soon.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you ask, David? To what investment vehicle are you referring?
ReplyDeleteregular savings account in another country
DeleteDavid, you might want to factor in the currency exchange rate risk here.
DeleteI must assume that the interest rate on the savings account is so high because the bank is not totally trustworthy.
ReplyDeleteNo, this is the standard interest rate for savings accounts at all banks in this foreign country, mandsted by federal law. In fact, the constitution at one point stipulated 12% annually! That law may still be on the books, but isn't followed. (weird, to say the least)
DeleteWhy are we beatting around the bush? What country?
ReplyDeleteSorry, my internet was down. The country is Brazil. And Nitin makes an excellent point. During the past 52 wks, the exchange rate fluctuated 23%. A savings account paying 6%/year could have lost 17% during that time in relation to the dollar. On the other hand, the exchange rate sometimes moves in one's favor, so it's unknowable, thus a high risk, almost like the stock market.
ReplyDeleteOne-year chart of the exchange rate relative to the dollar: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDBRL%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
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