By the way, as per our chat the other day about the bleed on TZA, here's a comparison over the past 7 days, where the RUT dropped just a tiny bit...so, any decay is bleed, mostly. 24-Jan-13 4-Feb-13 Product Change 900.19 899.28 RUT -0.10% 75.682 75.636 TNA -0.06% 11.26 11.21 TZA -0.44%
The RUT moved in the favor of the direction of the TZA... but rather than being up 0.3% (3x RUT), it's negative nearly a half percent... in just 7 days. So, if you were betting down the past 7 days, yer definitely better off having shorted TNA (which would have you UP 0.06%) than longing TZA (which would have you down -0.44%, though the mkt moved a smidge in your favor.. 0.44% bleed over just 7 days... that's a tough head-wind to buck. And 7 days is not exactly a long hold.
Just purchased a large lot of SPXU on the SPY gap fill. Non-system trade... Just a hunch. Will be back prior to the close with the offical signal and my game plan. thx.
Say more, JT. As a reversal of the position? An equal value to essentially lock in the gains of the long? Or just a small "large lot" to act as partial hedge. I'm also seeing some intraday internal weakness here, but I'm mainly curious about the trade mgt aspect.
Equal size to XIV, capital wise. Alternatively I could've sold XIV and gone to cash, but feel XIV still has some upside potential as it's not nearly as close to filling its gap.
By the way, as per our chat the other day about the bleed on TZA, here's a comparison over the past 7 days, where the RUT dropped just a tiny bit...so, any decay is bleed, mostly.
ReplyDelete24-Jan-13 4-Feb-13 Product Change
900.19 899.28 RUT -0.10%
75.682 75.636 TNA -0.06%
11.26 11.21 TZA -0.44%
The RUT moved in the favor of the direction of the TZA... but rather than being up 0.3% (3x RUT), it's negative nearly a half percent... in just 7 days. So, if you were betting down the past 7 days, yer definitely better off having shorted TNA (which would have you UP 0.06%) than longing TZA (which would have you down -0.44%, though the mkt moved a smidge in your favor.. 0.44% bleed over just 7 days... that's a tough head-wind to buck. And 7 days is not exactly a long hold.
Great data, thanks!
DeleteYes, thank you. There are (rare) environments in which TZA will outperform over a 7 day stretch, but the recent chop is evidently not one of them.
DeleteYes, thanks. It certainly does seem that shorting TNA and TZA for short and long positions respectively is a wise strategy.
ReplyDeleteXIV looks to have a very nice day if these futures hold!
ReplyDeleteIndeed. Seems like a gift...almost makes you want to cash out some on the open.
DeleteJust purchased a large lot of SPXU on the SPY gap fill. Non-system trade... Just a hunch. Will be back prior to the close with the offical signal and my game plan. thx.
ReplyDeleteSay more, JT. As a reversal of the position? An equal value to essentially lock in the gains of the long? Or just a small "large lot" to act as partial hedge. I'm also seeing some intraday internal weakness here, but I'm mainly curious about the trade mgt aspect.
DeleteEqual size to XIV, capital wise. Alternatively I could've sold XIV and gone to cash, but feel XIV still has some upside potential as it's not nearly as close to filling its gap.
DeleteSo, all my capital is invested.
thx, JT. Kind of a "pairs trade" then.
Delete:)
Sounded good in theory, can't believe the market strength today!
DeleteMaybe enen enough to flip the system, causing a short signal @ COB??
Delete