Wednesday, February 20, 2013
50% Long
JTS is generating a strong buy signal today, but the CCI is only producing a cover signal, which is a little bit concerning for a long trade. This combo sends the JT Composite back to a 50% long position (b/c CCI is cash). Since I'm following 100% signals only, I too will head into cash with a loss on this short trade. (Could've been worse, I suppose) Aggressive traders might heed the strong JTS buy signal and take on some long-side risk. Not a recommendation, just an observation. Thanks and best wishes.
J
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thanks
ReplyDeleteAlmost breakeven! The bulls threw us a bone.
ReplyDeleteYou can say that again. I would really like to follow the half long signal but I need to calm down a bit from this ride. And 3.9 % contango is not very enticing either.
ReplyDeleteOpened a 1/2 XIV position afterhours. Either you follow a system or you don't.
DeleteA nice bone. Certainly not one I was expecting. Thanks, J.
ReplyDeleteEnded up around .5% on top. Thanks J!
ReplyDeleteThis market remains extraordinarily challenging, at least from my perspective as a swing trader. I'll admit I've mostly been on the sidelines for weeks now.
ReplyDeleteI have noticed that, and the brave ones who have dipped their toes in have had a few digits loped off...
DeleteUnless of course you were long the market the whole time.
I wonder if technical analysis is done? or if the markets are going through a major transition so that current indicators will stop working (unless they already have) and some other indicator will take over... generic, nonsensical statement, but there seems to be something major going on and it is tweaking a lot of technical traders.
RMI, what you say is actually quite interesting. Markets do change and indicators stop working. Here'a good blog entry on the subject by Michael Stokes: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/embracing-whats-working-now/.
ReplyDeleteThe point is that we need to be vigilant because no indicator, cluster of indicators, system, etc. is guaranteed to work forever. But, the inverse is also true: we shouldn't bail at the first sign of trouble either. The indicator/system may just be experiencing a hickup. The conclusion is quite sobering: as in life, nothing in the stock market can be known with certainty (probably even the preceding statement).
Hold on there a sec, RMI. Sure, we were underwater there for a little bit and yes it was uncomfortable at times, but in the end it was a winning trade - if one shorted TNA rather than longed TZA (decay got us). I see no reason for concern at this point. The 100% signals are 6 for 7 this year (2 of which were basically B/E, though).
ReplyDeleteWe can't be wishy-washy after 1 questionable trade. The system is only supposed to get 75% of them right anyways. Hang in there with me!!
BTW, CCI is going long today at these levels. JTS will hold long so looks like the 100% system is buying XIV today. I'll be following along...
Marco, you have my respect for showing us how it's done. Pick your strategy and do not waver.
I did look back at the comment and yes, it was actually in reply to Michelle and the fact that Night Owl has been out (sidelines) a lot so far this year because technical analysis has been difficult to determine a direction.
DeleteSo, as this didn't apply to JT-S, CCI, nor JT-C I am not sure what I said to spark that response. I suppose it would have been smarter to post it on her blog, which I will do next time.
Sorry :D
OBTW, I sold for a slight loss yesterday and bought partial position in TNA (still "wishy-washy" on XIV, or any volatility play). Finished up with the rest of my position this morning at the 10am low hoping for a bounce up to and beyond the 20 day MA.
DeleteSo, if your system goes 100% long today, woohoo. I am already there.
Thanks for what you do!
ill probably do a half position near the close with ya J
DeleteSorry RMI, I thought that your questioning of T/A, market dynamics, and systems was a sign you may be losing faith in what we are doing here. Was just trying keep you motivated to keep following along.
DeleteHey, right there with you (actually got an early start, and my returns will pay for the early start).
DeleteCurious what happens next week though... TONS of economic data... then there is the mystic GDP on Thursday :)
Marco and J: exactly. Either you follow a system or you don't. As I've said in the past, some people are good traders and can beat a system. If one's discretionary trades perform better than J's systems, then go for it. But be careful because 95% of traders end up losing money. People tend to think that they're in the 5%, but . . . well the numbers speak for themselves.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion the worst thing one can do is surf the web and cherry pick stock market predictions from blogs, message boards, etc. That's a guaranteed one-way ticket to insolvency.
Finally, if you want diversification, you might want to invest in a number of systems that focus on different time frames.
For example, for short term trades, use J's system. For intermediate term trades, http://keybotthequant.blogspot.com/ is very good, and for the longer term, http://www.long-short-timing.com/Pages/default.aspx has an excellent record over many market cycles.
Agree
DeleteNow, since you also misunderstood my post, please read my response to J above.
Thanks, I am always interested in different systems
ReplyDeleteAs long as SPY remains above 149.43 (swing low from Feb 4) we are in great shape for a long trade!
ReplyDeleteContinuing to cover my shorts into this nice weakness...
ReplyDeleteForgive me, but after having been under water over 5 % today I just took the bone that was thrown to me and got out breakeven.
ReplyDelete