I've watched the market too much today looking for the perfect entry point to short. (I will not let this become a routine habit.) I'd much prefer doing something useful with my time. At any rate, I'm back in the game and I'm officially 50% short. Earlier today I bought a large chunk of TZA, but I don't have the guts to go 100% short right now like the JT Comp. There's just too much momentum, too much liquidity, and too much positive end of Jan. seasonality. So, I'm keeping 50% safe in cash.
Here is my prediction after some serious research the last few days. The markets are so overbought that I expect a dip this week of 30-40 SPX points. (Let's target ~1470 at a minimum...) I also expect that dip to be aggressively bought. So being nimble will be the name of the game. If I can get out with a decent profit for my first trade of the year, I'll take it...
Glad to be back!! Take care!
Position: Long TZA 10.98
Nice to have all of you back, J.
ReplyDeleteJ, Why TZA and not SPXU???
ReplyDeleteI don't have a great answer. January effect is winding down and TZA offered a better relative entry price.
DeleteBought 200 shares of TZA myself in after hours trading @ 11.02. We shall see where the market goes now. :)
ReplyDeleteIn my several decades of trading, this is some of the narrowest crap/range mkts I've ever had the misfortune of having to sit through. Good luck, J.
ReplyDeleteFOMC the next two days... maybe we get lucky and Barny will do something unexpected and that will wake-up the mkts.
But w/the VIX this low, it's nearly impossible to make good money trading. Need the VIX to open up.
Better to be lucky than good... TNA under-performing SPXL by 1.75%
ReplyDeleteHope that's a sign to come for the shorts.
ReplyDelete