Thursday, January 3, 2013

All systems hold.

It comes as no great surprise given the past 2 tradings days that the market is taking a break today.  Some consolidation here is healthy and almost necessary before the next move (up?).   I was paper trading in my mind earlier today, mentally buying some SPXU at 34.80 with the thought that there was no way we were going to finish green today.  Sure enough (with some credit going to the Fed) SPXU was up over 1.5% since my "purchase", though I see it's retreating some now.   This trading vacation is nice is some ways (ie. zero stress), but missing out on some of the biggest, best action in months these past few days has been a bummer. Looking forward to joining you all later this month.  One thing is for sure, I'll come back refreshed and hungrier than ever.

Anywho, onto the signals, which are offering very little of anything this afternoon.  JTS is holding strong long, the CCI remains short.  So the JT Comp remains parked in cash.  Probably not a bad place to be. 

Take care and I'll see you tomorrow.



14 comments:

  1. Good to hear that your trading vacation is lowering your stress levels. I'm looking forward to having you fulling engaged later this month. In the meantime, thanks for continuing to provide signals and commentary.

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    1. Agreed! Absolutely. It's a tremendous courtesy and service to his readers and followers. These recent events have been riveting; with wild volatility at the historically least-volatile time of the year. I know that for me, computing EOD market signals would definitely cut into my vacation mindset. Someone once said of market analysis of any kind, that "you may only think about it ten minutes in the day, but it still uses the entirety of your mind". I add my thanks.

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  2. J, sorry to hear you needed a break from trading. Mkts and your signals have been decent... little stress there... or here.

    Built some more shorts today... covered some lower stuff for a small profit, and will keep working my avg basis higher. The usual game.

    Bears need to get Sp500 back down to the 12/20 high... and close below that. ... otherwise the bulls still own it.
    Bears also need some up-gap-opens to sell into ... all gap-down opens will be bought up... I'll play 'em all.

    I'll cover a chunk of my shorts down there, and then put in stops on the remainder to prevent any round-trips.

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  3. It's not so much that I needed a break due to stress or anything like that. I simply force myself to take a few weeks off around the holidays to put my energy toward other endeavors... mainly my family. While I generally rely heavily on my system's signals when I trade, I still continue to do daily time-consuming reading and research. The biggest benefit I get from these few weeks is cutting most of that out. Yes, I cheated a bit yesterday by reading Rob's QE report. I had a few spare minutes. :) The break also serves to remind me that life doesn't revolve around the stock market.

    Sharing my signals with you all has become as built-in to my life as eating breakfast or taking a shower. It's just something I do. I'll continue to do so as long as you are wanting and willing to receive them.

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  4. Odds are good yet again that we will not finish green. I'd have my eye on some SPXU again for a day trade.

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  5. Receiving your signals and reading your comments has become a part of my day as well, J.

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  6. I have a question for J, or for anyone who is more mathematically gifted than me (which is most anyone).

    I was looking at your backtested results for the JT Composite System. For SPY, they're as follows: 2009 = 28% CAGR; 2010 = 46%; 2011 = 56%. For TNA: 2009 = 135%; 2010 = 270%; 2011 = 560%.

    I assume that the reason why running TNA yields results that are much more than 3x those of SPY is because of compounding.

    So, here's my question. Since the 100% version of the JT Comp makes fewer trades, do I assume correctly that if, during 2009 - 2011, one had traded TNA rather than SPY, the results would not be as good as if using the regular JT Comp system. In other words, would the apparent advantage of the 100% JT comp system disappear if the stats were amassed using leveraged ETFs such as TNA? And, for my information, what would they have been using TNA?

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    1. Right now, I don't have the answers. But I'm curious as well, so I'll run the TNA numbers sometime next week. Rather than post the answer here, I'll just go ahead and include them along with the 2012 stats page that I'm working on...which should be completed around mid-Jan. I'll also edit the "100% strategy" post to add whatever info I find. Thanks, A!

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    2. As always, I'm grateful for your hard work.

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  7. J, thanks for your time and your signals. I've been following for several months, and look forward to your comments and others who post on here daily. Enjoy your 'break', and good luck to all in 2013! Thanks.

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  8. JTS was flirting with a short signal earlier today, but this strength since 3pm (power hour, as I've heard it called) is squashing it. Stay tuned, though.

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