The JTS is covering its short position finally, but will not go long today. The CCI is offering up a fresh buy signal. This combo moves the JT Composite to a half-long/half-cash position using XIV. The VIX futures term structure remains barely in contango. If it flips, I would switch to using TNA for longs and VXX for shorts.
Personally, I don't trust this market right now and I'm keeping my long position on the small side... @ 25%. I'm often wrong, so don't listen to me! :)
Thanks,
J
thanks
ReplyDeleteI hate it when I'm more hoping for a bounce than expecting one...
ReplyDeleteSome reasons I do not trust this market.
ReplyDelete1) VXX closed higher while $VIX closed lower. Statistically bad for market.
2) Cobra posted FOMC chart dating back to 2009. Every red FOMC day was followed by another red day. Odds are very good we close lower tomorrow.
3) No signs of capitulation yet.
4) Bounce should've started today according to QE's studies.
All that said...If we see a red day tomorrow, especially a big, fat red candle on higher volume, I will be more motivated to take on risk for a coming bounce back up to the 50 day MA. So far, everything is going as I imagined last weekend.
wow, not exactly what I was hoping... :(
DeleteBut I have a habit of going in a day early and definitely a dollar short...
I have concluded tomorrow will be red. But a playable rally will commence Friday lasting into next week. That rally will be a good shorting opportunity.
DeleteI'm counting on JTS going long tomorrow. If so, I will take a large long position. If not, I will still probably increase my position to 50%, especially if we close down.
I'm a bit more bullish, J, about the mkt right here. Here's why.
DeleteSPX is right into the sweet-spot (center of the August consolidation) as well as 5/1 high. I registered capitulation volume yesterday, too, on SPY. For those looking for further push down, SPX 1395/6 is the next FIB support zone. QQQ daily did a last-engulfing candle today and is at ascending 200dma. Dow is at the ascending TL off the May-July lows, as well as now completely erased the 9/6 thrust day move. All of these are bullish , to me.
Not a fan of that FOMC stat you quote from Cobra. Often the FOMC day move is erased the next day -- just run yer stats back further, and you'll see. And I'd take QE's work w/a grain of salt, too.
BOTTOM LINE: I have no interest in being short here, as the risk is too high of a trade-able bounce from here. I could be wrong, but if I am, that just means I get more stuff on sale, w/deeper discounts. I keep buying weakness, building my longs. YM 13013 today was nice. Grabbed some TNA too.
Thanks, JKH. Always appreciated. To be fair to QE's, Rob is very bullish right now.
Deletegood call J-Trader. Bleeding from the morning High has the SPX in the red. looks like another down day.
ReplyDeleteAAPL earnings on tap after the bell as well..
Well, seems any strength (or good news) in the market is sold...
ReplyDeleteNo confidence in the markets???
The new trading plan is to sell longs at open, buy shorts, sell at close and buy longs... repeat...
Hoping for a bounce, but not feeling very confident that this market has enough buyers to make a difference.
I figured the market would start heading up towards the election to give some credence to all the claims that the economy is recovering... not
Oh, yeah...
DeleteAnother time where bad data gave us up markets and good data gives us down markets... Its no wonder normal people can figure this stuff out...
Glad I only went in a little :)
looks like the selloff coincided with the rumor of a Fitch US downgrade... jittery markets.
ReplyDeleteCrAAPL earnings gotta be worrying a lotta people... esp since they are such a behemoth in the index-weighting.
ReplyDeleteI hope we get a blowout gap down open tomorrow morning. These gaps up are not what I wanted to see today.
I have to assume you are not long if you want a "blowout gap down"...
DeleteRMI... you need to read my posts more carefully... then there's no need to presume.
DeleteJKH:
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm