Tuesday, October 16, 2012

CCI short.

The JT Comp moves to 50% short as the CCI gives a short signal today.  The JTS is generating a hold signal keeping it in cash.  I've already purchased my shorts for the day, utilizing SPXU rather than TZA since small caps are under-performing today and are thus more likely to jump harder on any continued strength.

The bad tick "target" at SPY 145.61 was achieved today which is what I used as my entry point for my shorts. 

I'm thinking today could be similar to May 31, 2011 as far as the CCI system goes.  See the attached picture.  We also may have a kiss of death today where we retest a broken uptrend line before moving lower again.  Time will tell.

Best wishes whatever you decide to do...

Top Chart: Today
Bottom chart: May 2011










Posted by at

13 comments:

  1. UnknownOctober 16, 2012 at 4:08 PM

    Hi J-Trader,
    Can you clarify what exactly a "kiss of death" is and what it signals? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JamesOctober 16, 2012 at 5:21 PM

      There are variations using moving averages and such, but from my experience it's simply a break of a trendline followed by a retracement back up to the line...the stock gives the trendline a kiss before it continues back toward the downside. Generally speaking, momentum has waned in favor of the bears and the bounce provides a good short entry (usually). Like any other indicator, it's not perfect. Many times you'll see the stock ride along the trendline which is now providing resistance. Sometimes the stock will pop back up above the trendline. We'll see how it works this time.

      A google search may yield better info. I'm no TA expert.

      Delete
    2. UnknownOctober 16, 2012 at 5:41 PM

      Thanks, much appreciated!

      Delete
  2. JKHOctober 16, 2012 at 8:47 PM

    J, interesting ... you and I have the opposite view of how to chose what to short. I'm thinking that since the RUT is suffering relative weakness (during the rally), that she's the best candidate for shorting now, too, not the worst.

    Exited the last of my longs when we got into the sweet-spot, as we discussed yesterday. Into some shorts, too, Dow and Russell. Thinking the RUT is the place to short, frankly, but like to spread my money around because you just never know.

    Likely we got higher to go yet, but I'm in my short-zone up here, so I'm shortin'. I would love to get Sp500 1470+ area. Bears need to take out 1440 area (w/gusto). That'll likely take a few days, unless Romney wins tonight.

    Today was a nice "Obama gonna win #2" rally ("Buy the mystery..."), so we now gotta think "... sell the history". Hoping for some silly-ass huge gap up open tomorrow on an Obama victory tonight. That'd be sweet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JamesOctober 17, 2012 at 6:06 AM

      Thanks, I was eagerly awaiting your thoughts. :)

      Delete
    2. JKHOctober 17, 2012 at 6:21 AM

      Eyeballing the premkt Futures action, it is looking like they're setting the stage to be able to squeeze the shorts one more time, and, thus, we have good odds of getting our next (better) short entry position, up higher, J. We'll know by the close tonight.

      Delete
  3. JamesOctober 17, 2012 at 10:31 AM

    Not surprisingly, I'm taking some hits today. As a small consolation, TZA is worse off than SPXU.

    ReplyDelete
  4. JamesOctober 17, 2012 at 10:39 AM

    FYI: 1040am ET: Short signals flashing from both systems.

    ReplyDelete
  5. David JohnsonOctober 17, 2012 at 12:51 PM

    Mr. Market is tricky as ever. Napped long enough for pundits to declare him unhealthy, after which he promptly jumped up and sprinted merrily away. The gurus and we hapless followers are still scratching our poor clueless heads.

    ReplyDelete
  6. JaredOctober 17, 2012 at 3:20 PM

    So are the systems still looking like they will give a short signal?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jason LiuOctober 17, 2012 at 3:36 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jason LiuOctober 17, 2012 at 3:37 PM

      2 Day EU Summit and China GDP on tap for tomorrow..

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)