The JTS still detects too much upside risk to short. The CCI on the other hand is expecting a pullback and is producing a 2nd short signal. I don't have stats on it, but 2nd consecutive CCI short signals have a good risk/reward setup. I'm taking some short exposure today via some TZA. I won't get too carried away until JTS hops on board, which may or may not happen next week. We'll see. The JT Comp remains unchanged, holding 50% shorts and 50% cash.
Have a good weekend!
Thanks, J. And have a good weekend.
ReplyDeleteBTW, have you noticed volatility of late? VIX down over 7% today and XIV up almost as much. Any ideas about what this means?
I'm not sure, but the thing that interests me is the VIX has not broken below the 8/17 lows while the SPX has busted above. Usually the VIX is the one telling the truth which means I'm leaning bearish.
DeleteAgree, J... looking for something that says "top" or "exhaustion" before adding. Appreciate the company short.
ReplyDeleteWow, no one I watch or track is short, they are all VERY bullish...
ReplyDeleteNow what?
I guess I take my lumps and move on...
If I had to guess I'd say we'll chop around in a relatively tight range for the next month. Probably not much money to be made on either side. :-/
DeleteFollowing bloggers or posters on blogs or websites is almost guaranteed to confuse you and lose you money. Most people who post views or opinions are right occasionally, but they're also wrong occasionally. Even those with systems with backtested results should be taken with a grain of salt. Unless someone has a live trading record that he's willing to share (for example, Michael Stokes on MarketSci and, needless to say, our own J), you're better off ignoring his advice. Instead, find a good system (one with live trading data) and stick to it.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I started posting my monthly trading results, daily call accuracy and live ES trades on my own blog. It lends some credibility to it. That said no one is ever 100% right. And those who are 100% wrong usually aren't around very long. But there is indeed no substitute for doing your own homework and forming your own opinion.
DeleteIn the name of sharing free stuff, this one is free, and this week's version is quite interesting. Enjoy: http://tinyurl.com/c2kbwxc.
ReplyDeleteAs for "everyone I watch" being "very bullish" post by RMI, I'll share my experience: There are a myriad of ways to slice-n-dice sentiment, and, as usual, right now, some are very bullish, while others are very bearish. Take them all with a grain of salt, a shot (or two) of whiskey, and sleep on 'em, before making trading decisions based upon them.... translation: they are mostly for entertainment purposes only... esp on the time-frame that is being traded here on this blog.