Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Both systems are producing hold signals...one can only hope this is not early August all over again. I'm keeping the faith.

30 comments:

  1. Thx for the timely alert JT, really helps when it can come in w at least ten minutes left, always appreciate that...

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  2. Thanks, J.

    We all hope that it's not August all over again. But I'd like to do more than hope. Can you tell us if, with both systems biased toward the short side and yet long, what it would take for them to go short? Or, stated another way, if the market continues down, will the models just continue in their long positions?

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  3. I should add that there should be a bounce soon. The 5 minute SPX chart is showing a falling wedge and there's positive divergence via the MACD.

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  4. Took on a good chunk of TNA and YM futs today... couple of my systems said to buy. Pretty much done w/putting on this long... now we just sit back and enjoy the upside that they will put on for the FaceBook IPO.

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  5. J, not to be presumptuous, but, if you have the time, I'd love a summary of the CCI system. The details can wait until you can get around to it, but it would be interesting to know what the CAGR of the system is.

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    1. I will have it all finished this week. It's been shelved the past several days. Thanks for being patient with me.

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  6. Nice double bottom on the ES futures. Hopefully it will hold and up and away we go.

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  8. Can you backtest to see what kind of signals the systems would have given before/during the August slide last year?

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  9. So many people are expecting a bounce, which makes me concerned that one won't happen and we continue down without a stop...

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    1. Looks like you were right. Maybe you still are right... Hope not.

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  10. RMI, who are these people? All I see is pessimism.

    But, I do agree that it's scary to envision a slide with no way to get out.

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  11. Algyros, I'm w/you.... Net OUTflows of $6.5B last week from mutual funds and equity ETFs (largest since last year August), says the little shits are voting w/their wallets, and they are scared. Likewise, AAII investor sentiment is the highest bearish (and lowest bullish) percentage since September. Six down days in a row on the Dow often establishes turn-arounds. It's just one of those times where you don't get insta-pleasure on your trade. These times are a little trying and everyone has to figure out their own style -- This is why I scale in/out of trades from systems. I've learned that by doing that, I can make good money with lower volatility/risk.

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  12. The pain...and I only have 36 shares of TNA that I bought at 56.75. I'm a poor trader :) Down around $300 now...sucks since I have a feeling even if we get a bounce it isn't going to be back up to the level I bought in at. Hopefully Facebook gives us something positive tomorrow...

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  13. This thing has to bounce. We are so oversold. Yet a market can stay irrational longer than some can stay solvent.

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    1. How far do you think the bounce will go though? I'm a long ways away from where I bought in at :(

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    2. I hate that quote b/c it's the painful truth of the market.

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  14. as of today, IWM, bounced off the lower BB band and is sitting almost at the 61.8% FIB from the July 2011 high which we peaked at in March also. So hopefully a bounce off that short term cci and rbi are very over sold..as for distance.no clue...remember, this is not fortune telling is it odds/probabilities. No system can predict the news releases and the after effect of it...hopefully that stupid Facebook IPO will help things.

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  15. Again I ask, why are we still long? I mean, at what point do we capitulate and lick our wounds to fight another day?
    Or, do we wait until there is nothing left to fight with? This kinda feels like last August...

    Just curious

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  16. Can someone provide a little hope, please...

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  17. Well I just ate my loss kind of on accident. I had a stop in place and I kept moving it out more, but I stepped away and it popped at 47.50. I regret allowing it to happen since I was going to ride out the rest of the week in hopes that tomorrow would bring something positive, but I'm SOL now. I guess after you sell stocks it takes like three business days for that money to be used to buy more stocks when you have a cash account. I didn't know that and I continue to learn daily...oh well at least I don't have to continue cringing as I watch the TNA plummet. I think I may need to step back from this stock stuff for a while because I'm losing more money than I am making in my individual accounts and my TSP...I suck at this stuff lol.

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    1. Settlement in this case is only an issue if you bought less than 3 days ago. If you purchased more than 3 days ago, you should have the money available to buy again.

      At least that is the way I understand it. USAA handles this for me so I don't get caught in the "free ride" situation.

      I am in the same boat as you and now have lost another 10% thinking I would start making money again... This market is taking a lot of us to the cleaners.

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    2. I bought my shares on May 3rd and sold today. I was told that SEC makes you wait three days until the trade clears or something to be able to use your money again to buy more stocks. If you have a margin account then you can use the funds immediately to buy more stock...

      I asked if it was OptionsHouse specific and they said that the SEC regulates that or something.

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    3. I am by no means an expert, but if I bought on the 1st and sold on the 3rd, I could us the money to buy again on the 4th. So long as the first transaction has "cleared" I believe you are ok. If for example I then sold on the 5th, I could not buy again until the 4th purchase cleared (not including weekends) on the 7th... I think. It does get hairy if you trade sooner than 3 days, but I know you can trade with your sales proceeds so long as you purchased what you just sold more than 3 days ago... and in your case, you did.

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    4. Maybe different brokerages work differently then. I literally cannot use the money to buy anything again yet...

      The money shows in my cash balance but not in Stock BP (I think means buying power).

      Oh well...probably is for the best since I should probably stay out of the stock market right now. If I want to play with more money I have my Roth IRA there now as well to play with. I'm too scared to do anything right now...and these 3X ETF's make it even more brutal. Instead of one person beating me with a bat it is three people. :(

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  18. you can probably still trade with the money but must hold the position till the $ clears and if you sell prior you get hit with a free ride. I have done that before. If you do get hit with the free ride deal they only let you trade settled money for like 90 days. Sometimes it is worth it.

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  19. Hold your longs or add to them..We knew they weren't going to make it easy for dip buyers and started getting long today-after being short for a while. Still hard to try and pick a bottom-but by next Tuesday, you will see iwm above 79. Watch IWM 75.65/75.46 if it gets down there. Should see rocket move. But I am not banking on it getting there-but fear is stronger than greed-so maybe ;) Low should hit today or tomorrow. Good luck

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