Monday, April 25, 2011

Buy signal

4:10pm: Buy signal is confirmed.  The system is now 100% long with an average price of TNA 85.02.  Again I chose not to follow my system.  I remain 100% cash and will take my long position near tomorrow's opening.  I was a bit perturbed when prices kept rising into the close and feel there will be a better price in the morning.

3:50pm:  An SPY close below 133.7 will confirm the buy signal. 

3pm:  Still a buy signal, although it's a weak one.  I would've liked to see more weakness to get a better price, but I suppose the lack of weakness is probably bullish going forward. 

11:03am: Everything is going as planned.  We are getting a 2nd buy signal today.  If it holds into the close, the system will be 100% long.  I think this is a pretty low risk set-up on the long side.  I say this for several reasons, the primary reason is that while the VIX is up huge, VXX is up a measly 0.04%.  It's days when VXX is up more than the VIX index where one should be concerned.   I am 100% cash but will be taking a large long TNA position before the close...assuming the buy signal holds through 4pm.  Will update later.

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