Hold confirmed.

I would like to think a bounce is coming, but at this point who knows... I remain 50% invested in TNA. I'm trying to remain positive and focus on the bright side that at least the half-stop loss rules did their job and limited losses. We'll see ya back here tomorrow.

The CCI System is a screaming buy signal right now, but it's been on a buy for several days, so again... who knows...

Unhealthy & Half Stop

3:45pm: As we flip to unhealthy mode today, the system exits half the long position on the close. The official unhealthy signal is a hold signal, which just means we'll hold the other half of the position in hopes of a bounce the next few days.

The system now goes into "short the rally" mode until or unless we flip back to healthy status...which is detailed right here.

Thanks...

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9:30am: It's official, with SPY dipping below 138.55, half of the TNA position will be exited on the close today.

To get a clue of what might happen intraday, with SPY opening below daily S3 support at 138.37, if we manage to move above that level in the first 30 minutes, it substantially decreases the chance of a trend day down. Or, alternatively, if we fill half the gap in the first 60 minutes, it also indicates a better chance of a close higher than the open. Finally, if the range of the first hour breaks, the direction in which it breaks should signal the trend for the rest of the day. Those rules of thumb come from my old daytrading notes.

Hold confirmed.

Staying 100% long over the weekend. Happy Easter!

Hold confirmed.

The system remains 100% long TNA.

SPY 138.55 - Half stop

Just a reminder to watch the 3/23 SPY swing low of 138.55, which is the official half stop. If we get down that low, the system will exit half the long position on the close today. That would also flip the system to unhealthy mode, which should result in more sell and/or short signals going forward.

For the record, like I mentioned yesterday I am buying today's dip.

2nd buy signal.

A little damage done today, but nothing too serious. I'm getting another buy signal and I do have a bit of cash sitting on the sidelines which I'll be using soon to purchase more TNA. Doubt I will use any of it today because I sense a gap down tomorrow morning. If we do get the gap down, I will go all-in long. Don't get me wrong though, I am heavily long right now and today is not fun...

Looks like the CCI sell signal was the right call. Still have to find a way to mesh my 2 systems.

Have a good evening.

Hold confirmed, but... CCI Sell Signal.

The system will continue to hold the long position. There should be more upside in the days to come...

My unrelated, just-for-fun CCI System generated a sell signal. The astounding winning rate over 90% continues. The gain with this particular trade was well below average, but still respectable at 2.64% using my ETF of choice (TNA). For more info, refer to my post on March 29.


Market Health revisited.
With SPY hitting a new yearly high today, the odds of us flipping unhealthy anytime soon are low. But it's something we have to keep an eye on....