Thursday, March 15, 2012

Short confirmed.

Nice to see SPY close above 140.60 and not have my late day blooper affect anything.

Short signal was confirmed. Tough market...

I mentioned in the comments below that I think today was a short term top. Let's see how it goes...

100% short - and ready for the pullback.

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Misread on my part..
140.60 or higher is still a short signal, but now 140.30 to 140.59 is a sell signal. Below 140.30 is a hold. Apologies... been a long day. :-)

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SPY level to watch is 140.60. If below that value, then we get a hold signal on the longs. If 140.60 or higher, sell longs and time to short TNA again...

Cheers!

20 comments:

  1. Sorry, it's closer than I though. SPY 140.60 or higher = short.

    Anything below and it's a hold...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wow, you know how to pick the levels... down to the wire again!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi J, My first post here. Kinda hairy watching SPY at the same time trying to sell and then sell(short) again. My time of trades were 3:58 then 3:59.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nice, welcome! I've been doing this for a while and I can def relate, as can many others I'm sure.

    A few times in the past, my broker's website has been bogged down at the close and I've missed trades. It can be hairy... good way to describe it.

    Of course, trading in AH is always an option.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes AH is an escape hatch or 2nd chance depending on the situation. My FT job has wierd hours sometimes I can DT but I like daily chart strategys better. Like yours.

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  5. I don't want to get cocky, especially since this has been a rough month, but I'm am LOVING this short signal. I just looked at several things and believe today was a short term top. Several things about today compare to late OCT 2011 or better yet, 2/18/11.

    Market should take a break here and we will capitalize nicely if it does.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yes, TNA should go below 52.86 with only minimal risk of a drawn down along the way. Thanks again for your work "J".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I wasn't going to be that bold (-16%), but I hope you're right. I would be happy with a 5-10% move down in TNA.

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  7. maybe I should have pick TVIX that would probaly give a bigger return

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stay away from TVIX. Read my account thread on TSPTalk about TVIX... I am now using UVXY

      http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/9279-realmoneyissues-account-talk-40.html#post352026

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    2. i definitely got burn before with tvix but the returns sometime is very tempting lol. believe it or not this is my first positive trade this year...i'm getting a little bit anxious.

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  8. Realmoney, are you saying it's dead in the fact that you could just short TVIX, (hedge with an inverse) and be basically guaranteed money?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I am saying that they are not creating any more TVIX shares and the secondary market (the one we use) is selling at a premium. Until that stops, then TVIX will no longer act 2x volatility.
      I hope that is clear as mud.

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    2. I've read about that tvix issue also. TVIX now is just basically acting like another 1x VIX fund similar to VXX.

      UVXY is the way to go...

      On the other hand, I see TVIX is up 3% today while VXX and UVXY are both down. Weird stuff is going on with TVIX, I would avoid it.

      Delete
    3. That was basically my point, avoid it.
      If it doesn't do what the prospectus says it is... then avoid it.

      Any insight into today's signal?

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    4. Looks like we're holding shorts over the weekend...

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