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Pretty risky with most indicators pointing down. What time period charts do you use to make your forcasts?
J, I should have warned you that I was going to go with this move. That should have been a contrarian indication (considering how my trades have gone so far this year).I wish us all some luck...
I know it doesn't look good right now, but I think this long trade will work out. It will take patience, as it may be up to 5-7 days before we see a profit. If not, the stop down at ~1342 will partially protect us, and will also flip the model into "shorting" mode.
J, maybe it would be helpful if you also document the month's (average) max drawdown. It will make it easier to stomach a + 5 % unrealized loss if one can see that this happens regularly.
I agree that drawdown statistics would help. And, should this trade not work out, I urge everyone not to decide not to take the next one. Choosing which trade to take and which not to is a guaranteed way to fail. If you think that the system isn't working, then stop using it altogether. But, if you have faith in it, take every trade, especially after one or more losing ones.
J, how is your CCI system holding up on this move down?
Stop Loss Hit
Chris, the stop loss hasn't been hit, not even close. SPY low for the day is 134.58 and the stop loss is 134.25.But all this is academic because the stop loss is eod.
Jtrader said early today "If not, the stop down at ~1342 will partially protect us, and will also flip the model into "shorting" mode."The believe he is talking about the emini's in reference to 1342 which we broke today
I'll get to work on the draw-down stats, b/c I'm curious also. Ugly day today. Could be a flush before continuing higher, or could be something more serious. I'm not quite sure. CCI is getting a robust buy signal today. The sell signal would occur on the day in which the CCI(14) closes in positive territory. 90% chance of a winning trade. Stop loss indeed has not been hit, although it's close and wouldn't surprise me on a day like today. :-/
What I find interesting is your system was so close to selling on Thursday and going short. It was pretty much calling the top and wanting to short right there. Any parameters you are thinking about changing since we missed our sell price on the Spy from last Thursday by less than .15?
Chris, I see what you mean about J's reference to 1342, which does sound like it refers to ES.Although this is J's system and he knows best how to use it, I urge caution about changing parameters to fit recent price action. That is the definition of curve fitting or data mining and it never works in the long run.
I hear ya on that and by no means am trying to curve fitting. I have been a avid fan and am not changing anything unless J makes the choice. Was a misunderstanding to what J said. As some trades happen you just have to say it is what it is.
Sorry! When I referenced 1342 earlier, I made the mistake of simply moving the decimal over on SPY to calculate the approx. value of SPX. The ACTUAL stop loss is SPY 134.25. When I mentioned it, we were far enough away that I didn't think I had to be specific. Oops.So, the bottom line is.... the half stop has not been hit yet, and the system remains healthy.I plan on making no changes, although I did wish I sold some longs intraday last Thursday when we hit 137.94.